It's just as well that I didn't have too much conviction in my theory that the index would sell down to a new low today because European and US markets were very strong on the basis of domestic economic recovery and fuggedabout oil. It's still an each way bet though because the volume was lower than it was when the market fell and the highs have not been regained so that this could be a fairly standard retracement of last week's fall. Here's the Dow chart but it's much the same picture with other Northern hemisphere stock indices.
The Xjo has been weaker but also looks closer to support. On the outside chance that the Xjo can't get through about 4830, then a minor new low is on the cards although it would probably be a buying opportunity. Otherwise, the first test is the midweek high just above 4850.
As for today, I am a bit too long gold stocks but the early indications are ok and the spot gold chart looks fine.
Challenger is ex dividend 7 cents and I might be able to reinstate the short.
I'll try to buy a couple of things early for a day trade or short things that get bid too high.
Fortescue could be alright to buy, it's back at the bottom of the range and the 30 minute chart shows a little 5 wave swing down and a minor buy signal would be triggered with a sale at around 655 which will probably happen early. If it pushes too hard on the match though, I won't bother.
10.54 A busy start for me with lots of tinkering at positions.
The index pushed through to a fractional new high relative to Tuesday and is up 50.
I've bought some Fmg at 654 and 658 and shorted some Lynas at 230ish as day trades.
The best news is Newcrest; I'd feared the worst with gold down but a market update has helped the stock surge 3%. I sold a couple of the calls on the way at 112 and 124, they're at 150 now.
Paladin is not a big short but it has squeezed to the point where I could stop out. I haven't done it yet because there seems to be plenty on the offer and because it looks more like an a-b-c retracement with just under 520 being a key level.
Sold the last of the Aax at 349, the Ipl physical at 456 leaving the calls running, some Lnc at 293 and some Rrl at 214 - all good to strong rises. Most of the shorts are up but only mildly, bar Pdn.
11.31 Ncm has regained the recent high around 4000. Sold more Mar 3850 calls at 152 and, just now, at 185. Only a few left.
1.21 The market has been up 50 for 2 hours now and I've been expecting it to pop another 10 or 15 points for a while now.
Positions haven't changed much; had some joy with the intraday short in Lynas and still have a couple left as it trades at 223,224. Fmg has gone nowhere.
I'm buying a small amount of Aristocrat as a normal overnight trade. Small because I'm in two minds. On one hand, it hasn't really crossed through resistance around 335, 340 except very briefly after the result. On the other hand, it looks like a textbook buying opportunity after a pullback where the momentum is increasing relative to the previous two month congestion. Long at 319.
Sbm has recovered so the golds have done quite well today, especially Ncm with a 5% rise at one stage.
I shorted a few Bld on the bounce at 540, I'm looking for them to fail at 545. Pdn eased off so still short there and I'm holding a handful of Lynas short overnight as they're unloved today and another cent or two is a reversal sell on the daily.
Sold a couple more Lnc at 299 and held most of the Fmg. Ipl closed on its highs at 462.
A good day and a good week despite getting the overnight moves wrong in general. The key has been a balanced book and a bit of luck. Index closed up 57.
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