Mr Early Riser. Fri Feb 12

I've been Mr Early Riser today as a friend has spruced up my main trading computer with new ram and memory and a good spring clean. I was just about ready for the market open although there's still all those stupid glitches in Outlook where you have to change date formats and whatnot.
Anyway, the US lead was strong with base metals particularly favoured but the Aussie market is still sceptical and it's been the standard sell off from a gap higher opening. At 11.40 am we're up 8 points, the high was a gain of 39 points.
Boral looked like it could fall early but once again some buying appeared so I've just bought back the last 7k at 567 for a loss of 1875, 2738 overall and another 35 in costs.
On the brighter side, I sold 2k more of my Fortescue long at 494 on the open for a gain of 480 dollars. Incitec Pivot is also up a few cents at 349. Potash in the US rose by 5% and that often provides a good lead for Ipl. I suspect that if the market can recover then the stock will rally along with it. It's through the short term resistance at 347 and it popped through the 4th wave high from the pullback which was at 352.

12.48 The market is still slipping lower. I went too soon in Boral which is back to 560.
Overall the Xjo index and the futures chart have rallied without breaching resistance so I'm still looking at the market going lower.
I've got a potential short in Challenger which broke down through support just below 400 and fell quite quickly to 351. It touched 395 yesterday and opened there again today but has reversed throughout the day.
Click to enlarge

1.27 Short 10,000 Cgf at 376.5 as the stock follows the lead of the rest of the sector.

2.17 Although the market has been drifting lower all day and is close to the lows I wouldn't be surprised to see an afternoon rally as twice this week we've discounted good overnight rises.

Fortescue reports on Monday so I'll be selling out the last 5k at some point this afternoon. My target is around 500, we reached 494 this morning and although I think the target is conservative there's also a fair bit of downside in what's an unpredictable company.

3.37 A small rally petered out leaving the market unchanged. I'm also going to sell out of Ipl by the close because the rally is just too choppy, there's no drive to it.

4.15 Out of Ipl at 348 for 800, 1100 overall and 30 costs. Out of the last 5,000 Fmg long just before and after the match out for a 491.5 average for a gain of 1175 and 1905 dollars overall less 30 in costs.

I didn't sell the last 5k of Cgf as they finished reasonably well at 381 with the 60 minute chart looking as if there's more room to retrace up.

The market managed a gain of 8 points with my short squeeze coming late on by way of the Spi.

Overcooked. Thu Feb 11

With US markets, hobbled by heavy snow on the East coast, finishing with small losses, we've taken stock and after dipping into the red early, at 11.04 am we've gained 27 points. It looks like the selling was overdone in Bhp and Cba which did, after all, report solidly and both are now higher by 1%.
I've finished buying Ipl with the purchase of another 5k at 340. I've also gone long 4 other stocks although I'm not convinced about the market having made a final low so these positions may just be for the day.
The pick is Fortescue which has been bravely holding the 440 support level and looks ready for a short term kick back towards 500. Long 10,000 at 468.
Click to enlarge.

11.43 I've bought back 3,000 Bld at 569 as on the day after the result and with no upgrade pressure - ie one upgrade, one downgrade - the stock is holding and just down 3 cents. I might be clutching at straws a little continuing short so I'll watch closely. Loss was 864 dollars on the 3k.

Market's up nearly 1% now.

2.36 Figures today include buoyant employment numbers for Australia and better than expected inflation figures for China but the market has stalled since the China numbers were announced despite a solid start in the Hang Seng.

State of play is long Fmg (last 477) and long Ipl (last 344) with an ongoing short in Bld which is still at 569.

3.39 I'm uneasy about the index, still worrying about new lows but I guess I'm going to stick with my signals, maybe reduce position size a smidgin.

4.14 The market was held back by the weakness in Telstra today but still managed to advance 41 points.

Until the market has clearly turned, I'm cautious about long positions so I sold the extra 5,000 Ipl out at 346 on the match for a 300 dollar profit. I wanted to see it break through 347 but it never quite managed it today.

Similarly, Fortescue couldn't quite break through short term resistance at 481 so I sold out 3k at 475 for a 210 dollar gain but essentially to reduce risk.

Bail out bounceback. Wed Feb 10

Rumours of a reluctant Germany bailing out Greece helped the DJIA to surge as much as 230 points last night before closing up 150. What was bad was now good, so the AUD rallied along with gold, oil and base metals.
This morning has bought a modicum of caution as early gains have tapered off leaving us, at 12.23 pm, with a rise of 43 points.
Reporting season is also in its stride with big guns Bhp and Cba announcing this morning. Both results were solid but management have expressed caution so they've sold off their early highs quite sharply.
I wish I could say the same about Boral which reported a better than expected result thanks to keeping a close eye on costs but if anything their commentary, which was eagerly awaited, is more circumspect than analysts were expecting. Nevertheless, the stock opened up 5% and has basically held that level in a slipping market. I've done nothing and while it's worse than I expected and it looks like it might push some more intraday, I'm looking at resistance at 589 and 603 and will use those as potential stops for the moment.
Otherwise, I bought 2,500 Cey at 358 for a loss of 100 dollars and sold out the Lihir at 288.5 for a gain of 1200 dollars less 37 costs. Lihir had no support after the open so I dumped them. They've since hit 285 and I'm a little tempted to buy a few back for another push up.
Normally I'd be quite keen to buy some stocks after a nice 5 wave down push in the Xjo index, a lot of reluctance to fall any further over the last few days and a reversal up, but when I look closely at the 60 minute chart of the Xjo it looks to me as though there could be one more leg down to complete the move.
Click to enlarge.

This is a blown up look at the 5th wave down on the daily chart for the Xjo. It looks like a small 1st and 2nd wave were followed by an extended 3rd which developed into 5 of its own followed by a 4th wave retracement which may have just completed. If so then you could expect another leg down to a slight new low.
Generally it's not a great idea to fine tune these things too much but I've got enough doubts to hold off on buying a couple of stocks I like. Also, the bail out is not confirmed and things could sour just as quickly.

2.25 The Xjo index is now up a mere 15 points but I've just bought back the late 5k of Cey for 351, so 150 dollars profit there and 200 overall less 23 costs. It's a pretty scratchy trade and I'm happy to be out for a touch better than square. Bld is finally edging back but only after having been up 6% plus for a while, it's still up 27 at 575.

2.32 Up just 8 now. I'm looking to buy some Incitec at 340. They look as if they've made their 3rd higher low since a 5 wave move down. Most analysts are neutral to bullish with recent upgrades last week.

2.55 Long 10,000 Ipl at 340. 5k to go, towards the close of trading.

4.10 After working its way into the red, some late buying in the match out pushed the index to a rise of 8 points for the day. Since my scenario for the index is playing out I decided to buy the rest of the Ipl tomorrow. Bld was the second best percentage mover in the top 100 so that wasn't my finest hour. Still short 10k with the last sale at 572.

Lihir worked out well enough with a finish down at 282.

Fingertips. Tue Feb 9

The market is desperately trying to hold the 4500 index level and has clawed its way back to the 4490s after opening lower. My take is that it won't manage to hold but that we are close to the end of this wave of the sell off.
I've got a featured trade today, at least, in Lihir Gold. So far, I've bought 10,000 at 281. I'm taking the view that this is a tradeable retracement rally because there was a big drive down from 350 to 270 and the first real resistance is at 311.

Click to enlarge

12.02 The market is tumbling into the ravine, now down 44 points at 4477. Unfortunately, Cey is hanging in there at early support so I bought 2,500 back at 348 for a little 150 dollar profit because I'm going to be out of the office later for an hour or two. Boral is also defying gravity, sitting unchanged at 548.

Of my stocks Challenger has been the hardest hit over the last few days and although I've made a few dollars on the short side with intraday trading, I could easily have cleaned up with some overnight positions. When stocks are in a steep down trend, I tend to leave them alone if not already short. Here's the Cgf chart.

Macquarie Group has also been suffering and is heavily down today, partly because of disappointing (though improved) guidance but I expect it's also a play on the withdrawal of the wholesale funding guarantee.

12.26 It's reporting season of course and I've been referring to my trading calendar regularly although I managed to forget about Awc which probably explains the rally yesterday. Boral reports tomorrow but I'm willing to hold on to my short, I think it's probably the factor that's helping the stock to outperform over the last couple of days and the risk/reward favours the downside. I do have a small buy lower down though, I'm willing to reduce position size a little if I don't have to pay up for the privilege.

3.28 Back from my appointment and like Lazarus, the market is back from the dead. Now down only 15 points and above 4500, 4506.

4.13 The finish was about the same level at 4505. The only addition was to buy another 10,000 Lgl at 284, making 20k at 282.5.

Banking jitters. Mon Feb 8

The late, late show in the US market helped to set things up for a bounce back today but the Reserve bank in Australia is pulling the guarantee shortly so the banks are under pressure. Cba, for example, opened up 50 cents, pulled back 80 to be down 30 on the day and is now up 37. The othe big banks are still down on the day and in the major resource stocks we're simply matching some late overseas mark ups without any buying enthusiasm. All in all, it means we've risen 13 points at 11.17 am.
My take is that the fall is incomplete but we could easily rally for a couple of days so I'm buying my shorts on weakness.
In Alumina I bought 10k at 156.5 on the open for a 600 dollar gain, leaving me short 10k. This was an open of up 0.5 cents only compared to 2% US gains for Alcoa. I should have bought the other 10k, it's 159 now but not enthusiastically bid. Bld and Cey are flat, while Tse which was well bid on Friday has reversed to be down 12 at 373. I bought 2k at 375 for a 250 gain.
I'm short Challenger on some intraday trading but although it's working it's a marginal trade and not worth featuring.
Aristocrat is maybe my best option but I'm still reluctant because I'd like to get long in the 420s rather than the 440s. Here's the daily chart.

Click to enlarge.

I got a buy signal on the trade at 446 but I'm waiting to see how solid the early market gains are as this stock can be thin and affected by sentiment.

12.21 The market has been rallying, up 35 now. I'm out of Tse, I think I can get short at better levels. Bought 2k at 372 then the last 2,500 shares at 382 for another 450 profit, so 700 all up, less 16 costs.

I think the significant break was at around 410 so it's possible that with a higher low on the cards, the stock can push back towards 400.

1.56 Today has been quite volatile, clearly indecision reigns, and after the surge to midday the market pulled back. It's steadied again but Asian markets are down, ignoring the late US rally, and I'm betwixt and between.
Awc surged as high as 164.5 and I bought back the last 10k for 163, a 50 dollar loss. Overall, the deal made 1200 less 32 costs.
Bld and Cey are steady but I'm more hopeful than confident at the moment.

3.47 I'm just short Boral and Centennial Coal. I've been watching the 60 minute chart for Cey and with the retracement rally having stalled below 365, I think there's a good chance that it drives down below Friday's low of 342.

4.13 The Xjo index has closed with a gain of 7 points on a choppy, lacklustre day. Nobody's convinced by the late US rally but if Europe turns around then there could be some buying tomorrow.