Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Bail out bounceback. Wed Feb 10

Rumours of a reluctant Germany bailing out Greece helped the DJIA to surge as much as 230 points last night before closing up 150. What was bad was now good, so the AUD rallied along with gold, oil and base metals.
This morning has bought a modicum of caution as early gains have tapered off leaving us, at 12.23 pm, with a rise of 43 points.
Reporting season is also in its stride with big guns Bhp and Cba announcing this morning. Both results were solid but management have expressed caution so they've sold off their early highs quite sharply.
I wish I could say the same about Boral which reported a better than expected result thanks to keeping a close eye on costs but if anything their commentary, which was eagerly awaited, is more circumspect than analysts were expecting. Nevertheless, the stock opened up 5% and has basically held that level in a slipping market. I've done nothing and while it's worse than I expected and it looks like it might push some more intraday, I'm looking at resistance at 589 and 603 and will use those as potential stops for the moment.
Otherwise, I bought 2,500 Cey at 358 for a loss of 100 dollars and sold out the Lihir at 288.5 for a gain of 1200 dollars less 37 costs. Lihir had no support after the open so I dumped them. They've since hit 285 and I'm a little tempted to buy a few back for another push up.
Normally I'd be quite keen to buy some stocks after a nice 5 wave down push in the Xjo index, a lot of reluctance to fall any further over the last few days and a reversal up, but when I look closely at the 60 minute chart of the Xjo it looks to me as though there could be one more leg down to complete the move.
Click to enlarge.















This is a blown up look at the 5th wave down on the daily chart for the Xjo. It looks like a small 1st and 2nd wave were followed by an extended 3rd which developed into 5 of its own followed by a 4th wave retracement which may have just completed. If so then you could expect another leg down to a slight new low.
Generally it's not a great idea to fine tune these things too much but I've got enough doubts to hold off on buying a couple of stocks I like. Also, the bail out is not confirmed and things could sour just as quickly.

2.25 The Xjo index is now up a mere 15 points but I've just bought back the late 5k of Cey for 351, so 150 dollars profit there and 200 overall less 23 costs. It's a pretty scratchy trade and I'm happy to be out for a touch better than square. Bld is finally edging back but only after having been up 6% plus for a while, it's still up 27 at 575.

2.32 Up just 8 now. I'm looking to buy some Incitec at 340. They look as if they've made their 3rd higher low since a 5 wave move down. Most analysts are neutral to bullish with recent upgrades last week.


2.55 Long 10,000 Ipl at 340. 5k to go, towards the close of trading.

4.10 After working its way into the red, some late buying in the match out pushed the index to a rise of 8 points for the day. Since my scenario for the index is playing out I decided to buy the rest of the Ipl tomorrow. Bld was the second best percentage mover in the top 100 so that wasn't my finest hour. Still short 10k with the last sale at 572.
Lihir worked out well enough with a finish down at 282.

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