Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Partial recovery. Tue Feb 2

The rot has stopped for the moment and the market is up 1.6% at 11.18 am. It's not particularly favourable for me as I have two short positions. Ipl is up 11 at 328 but I'm still quite comfortable with that. Cey is the problem. I shorted another 5k at 365 on the open, thinking that I was completing my selling at a better level and it did drift off for a few minutes but now has pushed on - with most of the rest of the coal sector - to 370 which is a gain of nearly 6%. I'm confident that the break of 360 was quite significant but it could rally to the high 380s before I could assess whether I was right or wrong.


I'm interested in the possibility of a retracement rally in Fortescue. It fell right back to support and today has reversed up to 460. I'm not willing to chase it at this point but will see if it shapes up on the intraday scale later on.


2.34 I've been out of the office for a couple of hours and the market is little changed although something might happen now with the RBA unexpectedly leaving interest rates on hold.

3.02 I'm starting to put on a short in Qantas. This gave a sell signal 3 days ago when it fell through support at 283. It has since rallied but without going through the recent pivot high at 290. I'm short 10,000 at 286.


3.06 While I was out of the office Fortescue ran up as high as 471 and is now back at 464. Still no great intraday set up so I'm leaving it along for now.

4.06 A grinding day that is finishing near the highs despite caution in other markets in this time zone. Not a lot I could do but watch my two positions move against me as they're not at stop levels. I've put on a half position in Qan which is closing at 286. I don't think I could have done much different yesterday, I closed out Ozl, for example, and half of Ipl - it's just a frustrating day. The down trend is very much in place but there's certainly the potential for another day like this which could squeeze me out.

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