Overdone. Mon Feb 1

The new month has started with a rally despite a weak overnight lead, we probably got oversold by Friday's close. I haven't put on any new trades so far although I've got a buy signal in Aristocrat. The problem is that it gapped up on a better than expected forecast of operating profit.

The buy was triggered on trading above 425 so I can just hope that it chops around for a while and gives me an opportunity to get long. The preceding pattern, an extended 5 wave thing, looks complete for the time being and you might typically expect a rally close to the 4th wave retracement high around 480 unless it's the start of a new bull run in which case it could go further.

12.54 Soon after midday the market took a rapid turn for the worse as confirmation of continued heat in the housing market and government gloom over budget forecasts - ludicrously estimated out to 2050 - soured the mood.
I've bought back 5,000 Ipl at 320 for a 900 dollar profit. Ozl is down a couple of cents too. Aristocrat is holding its gains and a couple of shorts I'm looking are holding above support so apart from a bit of intraday trading in the Spi, I'm watching and waiting.

1.48 Although Centennial coal is extended, the general mood of the market is for decent falls in the miners. I've had a small sell signal over the last couple of days but I've been cautious because we're so near to previous highs around 360. In the last hour, Cey has tipped below that support so I'm going to work my way into a short position. So far, I'm short 5k at 357.

2.19 I've bought back the balance of my short in Ozl. 10k at 104 and 10k at 102.5. It's right on the early September low and looks pretty weak but this was roughly my target and I'm happy to take my piece of the action. Altogether the trade made 2850 less 29 dollars costs.

3.38 The market continues to fall, down 44 points at 4526, as commodities are sold off on the back of disappointing Chinese growth numbers. I've sold another 5,000 Cey at 351, so now short 10k at 354 avg.

We're getting very close to the next support level of 4503 recorded on Nov 5th last year.

4.11 We've closed with a loss of 45 points which is about 1%. I'm imagining a day tomorrow where it opens weak and rallies, we seem pretty oversold now and if metals prices don't get hammered tonight then we'll bounce I suppose. I didn't finish my Cey selling, might get a chance tomorrow and I bought another 2500 Ipl at 315 for a further gain of 575 dollars - still short 7500 shares there. Those are the two featured positions.