Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Snap back. Wed Feb 17

Strong overnight action in Europe and the US has broken the stalemate and confirmed that the retracement rally is up and running. Approaching midday, the Xjo index is up 83 points or 1.8%.
I've got definite cuts to make in Challenger and One Steel but I've only done part of the Cgf so far as recently these rallies have tended to wane as the day goes on. This one looks unlikely to fall back much though so I might have to bite the bullet sooner rather than later.
I've got a few potential longs which I should have bought early, with hindsight, and the best opportunities look to be in Asciano, Fairfax and Qantas.

12.44 Bought back 5k Cgf at 378.5 (v 2nd tranche at 373.25). This was a small loss of 263 dollars which exactly cancelled out the small gain yesterday so I'm just down the costs of 24 dollars. Also bought back 5k of the second tranche at 376 (v 376.5).

1 pm Ost was at 350 soon after the market opening which provided confirmation that I should cut. So far I've bought back 5,000 at 344 for a loss of 1100.

2.01 There hasn't been anything by way of a pullback in the overall market although a couple of my stocks have paused. I've taken the opportunity to clear the decks and get out of my short positions. I've bought the last 5k of Cgf at 378 for an overall 50 dollar loss less 24 costs. Out of Tse too at 379 for 200 down and another 24 dollars for costs. These are fine but Ost is a bit harder to take, out of the last 10,000 short at 346 for a loss of 2400, 3500 all up and another 31 dollars in costs.

4.02 I've gone long in Asciano. In this stock the sell off over the last month held around the November highs and after 5 waves down the stock has just made a buy signal at 178. It's possible that this will just be a mild retracement rally but it's in technically better shape than a lot of stocks so there's the chance of new highs or at least getting close to the January highs. Long 40,000 at 178.
Click to enlarge.

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