Thursday, May 20, 2010

Recall. Thu May 20

After a tentative early bounce the local market turned tail and fled, falling a rapid 60 points on the Spi as the Japanese market opened weaker. As far as I can tell (at 11.54 am), the Japanese fall is more to do with another Toyota recall and as other Asian markets are in better shape than the Japanese, the Aussie market has bounced off the lows to be down 14 points.
My bullishness is premature and although I've only had a couple of overnight longs, I could have done with holding my short positions for a bit longer. I've also not helped things by buying a couple of stocks early on which I then averaged into - which is a dangerous game - the rally has bailed me out but it's silly stuff.

1.06 I'm still in buy mode but trying to resist the urge. One Steel is just down a cent although it hit 306 earlier, while Lgl is harder hit having fallen 9 to 395. I've just got the long dated calls so I'm not too fussed about this although with hindsight I could have sold them in the high teens and been buying them back for about 11 or alternatively, just shorted some stock to hedge them.

2.53 We're back down again as early Chinese strength has faded and the resource sector is pretty hard hit. There's not a lot to do with most stocks too far gone to short while the odds and ends I've been buying are continuing to weaken.

4.13 It's easy to forget how insistent the overseas selling can be when a carry trade is being unwound. A day of lost opportunity for me as I failed to recognise some intraday shorting opportunities. The market lost 1.6% and is down 14% since the April 15 high. It's probably quite cheap but the local institutions are likely to step aside until they think the selling is over.

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