Monday, May 3, 2010

O Henry. Mon May 3

The Henry Tax review had more of an impact on resources prices than I anticipated and I missed some shorting opportunities as I didn't realise it would be a catalyst to break uptrends and support levels. Oh well, I bought back my Cey short on the open as the weak US market and the prospect of a resources tax hike had it opening down 24 at 406. It seems like the selling this morning was a short term culmination after a few days of heavy selling late last week and a number of resource stocks have bounced from their opening lows.
I've gone long a couple of them on a fairly short term basis but the trade I'm most interested in today is a short position in Commonwealth bank via some May puts. It's not on my official watch list but I do keep an eye on the top 20 and this has been interesting me for a week or two. I was very tempted to try to pick the top (like everyone else in this stock) as it hit 60 on slowing momentum. The sell off overlapped a previous swing high and I thought about buying some puts this morning as Cba regained 5900. Unfortunately, I dilly dallied and the stock dropped right back to 5830. It's recovering now and I'll keep my eye on the May 5900 puts. If the stock makes a lower high and drops down it could comfortably reach 5600 and depending on how it looked then, I might sell them out or sell a lower strike to turn the position into a spread. If it keeps running then I'm risking most of the premium so it's something of an all-or-nothing bet.
Here's the chart.
1.41 pm Decided that the rally back in Cba might not go too much further so I've bought a handful of May 5900 puts at 152.

3.01 I jumped in too fast as Cba is closing in on 5900 again as the Henry review, which favours the non resource sector, is probably providing a nice lift.

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