Thursday, July 29, 2010

A trickle of results. Thu Jul 29

In the short term, the index is back into the congestion that we briefly rose above yesterday afternoon. The market is down a cautious 15 points after half an hour and the smaller resources continue to be under mild pressure although I notice that Bhp and Rio are firmer.
The reporting season has started but with only a few companies having reported, it doesn't seem as if any conclusions have been drawn. I keep reading that FY10 and FY11 forecast are too high, so if that's the prevailing opinion, then some slack may be given to companies which miss targets or talk down prospects.
Along with soothing words from China which helped the Shanghai market, the local CPI numbers were benign yesterday so notwithstanding the muddling recovery in Europe and the US, prospects look reasonably good to me.
I'm still repenting at leisure after having acted in haste earlier in the week. It means that I'm holding on to my longs but not game to add any new ones. And with a decent uptrend in place, I'm not fussed about putting on short positions for the time being.

1.15 I recently read a very good, non-fiction book by Tim Parks. He's a new author to me, but actually, a well regarded literary figure who has appeared on the Booker prize shortlist. The book, "Teach us to sit still", explores his attempts to heal an intractable and painful health problem. He eventually discovers that his driven personality - he's a prolific author - is at the root of his illness.
There's an edgy nervous tension which is common to many traders, myself included, and the book resonated strongly because of that. Sometimes I think it's why trading is attractive and this tendency to heated mental activity is often an asset but it also imparts a tendency to overtrade. As time has passed, I've wanted to change gear in a work sense, to slow down, because I became aware that my more profitable trades were the patient ones and that I could have time for other things and yet, trade more effectively. And also, just because I wanted to. I wanted to change my life and myself.
Unlike Tim Parks, I'm not a sceptic - which in his case, seems to mean scepticism about the metaphysical and unquestioning acceptance of the material - but like him, I'm learning how to sit still.
I've been trying to relax more for years actually, but I realise now that I hadn't taken it seriously enough. This despite a chronic health condition of my own which has also driven my exploration. Slowly but surely, my health is improving but it has been a slow process of recognition.
This is an interesting insight - itself a quote from a Dr Wise - which appears in the book
"Many of our patients are simply too busy to dedicate themselves to our treatment. These people, men and women, were not yet suffering enough. They still saw their pains as an irritating waste of time, a distraction to put behind them as quickly as possible. Hence they were drawn to accounts of their illness that saw a rapid solution in drugs or a surgical operation. No personal energies need to be expended. It could be paid for, hopefully by the State. We strongly advise these patients to accept these pains as the main curriculum of their lives."
The obvious parallel here with trading is the magic bullet of a new system or market or broker to provide a quick fix. It rarely works though and eventually you have to do the hard work of self examination.
I think, it's starting to pay off. I'm less active and more thoughtful with my trading and results seem fine, if not better than usual. Meanwhile, I'm using the time to meditate and to release some of that mental and physical tension with some quite hopeful progress.

3 pm Still no new trades, but there is underlying strength in the market and the loss is down to just 5 points. The Shanghai index is up again with the Hang Seng and Kospi only fractionally weaker too so we're in good company.
Western Areas has had a fantastic run lately and has pulled back over the last few days. The chart is explosive and will probably make another new high above 515 once the correction is complete. I almost nibbled at some at around 468 this morning. I wish I had because it's back at 484. Nevertheless, if the correction has another leg down, I'll be willing to buy some in the 450 to 460 range. When a stock is moving explosively like this, it's unlikely that a swing low will overlap the previous swing high, so a stop at 440 would be reasonable. Here's the daily.

















4.13 There was a brief glimpse of positive territory before the match out dragged the index back to a loss of 6 points. My overall positions were virtually unchanged and I did almost nothing, just bought a few Mbn at 215 and sold them out at 217 while leaving my core holding unchanged. Mbn closed down a cent at 218.

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