Monday, July 12, 2010

V bottoms, baby we got 'em. Mon Jul 12

Another day of rally as we trace out our nervous bounce in a week which features the start of the US reporting season, led by Alcoa, and monthly Chinese figures on Thursday.
The chart of the Asx 200 index has the look of a V bottom about it, always hard to trade as the change in sentiment seems so abrupt.














The resource stocks are coming to the party today after sitting on the sidelines last week. I'm still pretty cautious and I've sold a few of my Ipl out at 279, Tse at 328 and a couple of other leftover positions.
I've added a few more Mmx though, at 201 and put on a new position in cheapie Lynas, a rare earths producer, which is running on news that China is restricting exports of their own rare earths in anticipation of increased demand. I went long on the open at 61 and I'm jumping on a moving stock rather than waiting for it to come to me, which I prefer to do. However, so far it has rallied further to 63 and there's a chance that the stock can accelerate into a larger scale pattern rather than tracing out a 5th wave high here.















As is ever the case with these momentum plays, I'll need to be quick to jump off if it starts to reverse.

2.50 pm The market has been steady for most of the day with a rise of of around 15 points. The resources stocks are continuing to have their day and I've sold out the extra Mmx for 205 and half of the Lyc at 64. I've still got much the same exposure I had this morning in Mmx and Wsa, which I'm reasonably confident about, but I've lightened the load elsewhere since the Alcoa result overnight has the potential to be a negative or a positive catalyst.

4.25 Not much change by the close, up nearly 14 points and my longs held near their highs. The opening of the US reporting season will be the acid test today.

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