Usual cliches apply. Mon Jan 10

I've gone long some Qantas shares at 250 this morning because they're taking off, high flying, up, up and away etc etc. I was watching them on Friday and I almost missed them this morning. It's a reversal trade so I'll need to be quick and clear with my objectives. I'm hoping for a move back into the previous range which is roughly from 260 to 270. As soon as they consolidate, I'll sell out.

11.18 There was some early weakness which reversed and the market almost got back to breakeven. It's back to being lower by 8 but the selling doesn't seem to be there despite more heavy rain in Queensland and minor softness overnight.

I'm out of the last of the Mmx at 138. Could have been more agressive to sell at my target levels in the high 140s. I did get about half away there.

12.43 The Xjo 30 minute chart is just shaping up for a buy signal. There was a higher low and a trade through 4705 - which is about breakeven - would confirm it. Over the last 4 days there has been a sequence of marginal new lows within about 15 points. It's all pretty short term but has the look of a turning point.

2.11 There's a flood of data coming through from China. So far it looks like exports are dropping with imports firmer and a reduced trade surplus. It's the sort of thing that the world wants to see but the market reaction is muted for now. Chinese markets are slightly lower.

Everyone wants China to move from an export focus to domestic consumption and perhaps the market is unsure whether this is happening or the economy is merely slowing.

2.27 Lynas has bounced nicely to be up nearly 9% at 208. I've missed out on that one but have bought Arafura which has a similar trajectory and is lagging today. Long at 142. The breakout level was at around 127 so I'd use today's low as the basis for a stop. Around 137.

4.12 The index battled its way to a rise of 7 points. Aru couldn't follow Lyc and closed at 144. Qan held well and finished at 256. The rest of my positions (Aax, Awe, Kzl, Tls and Wsa) are chopping up and down on a daily basis with no real direction. I'm keen to either see them move or chop them.

Dreary. Fri Dec 7

The skies are overcast in Sydney with scattered showers delaying the completion of Australia's humiliation in the Ashes.
The market is dreary too, enthusiastically seizing on a 25 point drop in the Dow to knock our market lower by 18 points after 45 minutes. There's some justification because this time, the large resource stocks were hit a percent or two overnight and commodities had a similar knock.
I think the Asx 200 will probably make a higher low intraday so I'm actually mildly bullish from here.

The rare earths stocks are peeling back after their strong runs and I've bought a few Lynas at 193.5. The fleeting low this morning was 187 which is about two thirds of the last leg up. It's probably only a day trade but could provide a bit of fun.

I got out of a small long position in Karoon at 735. I'd been hoping to build it up on a breakout but after 4 or 5 days it hasn't happened and looks less likely.

12.10 The index is below 4700 and flirting with yesterday's intraday lows. I'm banking on it holding...
Out of Lynas at 200.

12.19 Well, the levee broke easily and the Asx 200 is a point or so below yesterday's nadir, down 0.6%. I'll have to wait and see if there's much follow up selling. Mmx is down 4 today at 142.5 but still looking ok. In fact, most of my positions are fine, if slightly disappointing.
Asian markets are flat so far.
And the Ashes misery is finally over. 3-1 to England but it felt much worse than that!

1.25 Early reads in Hong Kong are down about 0.2% and Asian markets generally are down about 0.1 to 0.2% while the Aussie market has slipped 0.7%. Overnight US futures are a fraction weaker too so I'm looking for another afternoon recovery. Not necessarily expecting it though since it's a Friday and the nation might spend the afternoon drinking to forget.

3.47 The market has climbed back from the depths but is still down 19. My stocks haven't gone anywhere though. Sold a few Wsa on the open at 629 and they're still looking the best.

4.12 A little weakness on the match and the Xjo ended down 20 at 4705.
A mediocre day for my positions but the selling looks tired to me and I'm happy to have had a good week overall with a book that was 100% long while the market ground down 40 points over the week despite good leads.

Doing our time. Thu Jan 6

Another reasonably positive overnight lead and even the feared sell off in resource stocks didn't happen overnight. The US and UK listed resource stocks held up reasonably well but it looks as if our weakness has to play out before we can start to rally. My scenario for today is for the index to trade below yesterday's intraday low before it can stabilise. Here's the 60 minute chart for the Asx 200.

If it makes a higher low and pushes up I'll be better pleased since I'm long the market.
My positions are generally positive with Mmx continuing its acceleration. Out of about a quarter of the position at 141.5. The chart looks more like a strong retracement rally than anything else and I'm assuming that it may top out below the late October swing low of 154.

12.10 The index dipped below yesterday's intraday low and I wouldn't mind seeing some consolidation now. So far, it's a 4 point bounce to down 9.

The issue with the floods is interesting. Usually with one off events, stocks aren't marked down, once the dust clears, unless it affects the outlook. The papers are saying that inflation could rise by 0.75% but that the Reserve bank will try to look past this flood impact. But right now, the floods haven't eased and the mud hasn't been cleared so people are still trying to work out what the damage will cost.

12.28 Chinese markets are charting quite well. They've had a different trajectory to the Australian market but have been a strong input in the last year.

Here's the HSI.

The Shanghai market has been weaker (after a 20% plus gain in 6 weeks) but held above the breakout of the September highs and has reversed back into the recent range after briefly making a new low.

In the Aussie market, the hint of a bounce has faded and we're on the lows, down 15 at 4700.

2.05 Here's the updated Xjo 60 minute chart. It looks ok now. A minor new low with no follow through and the long tails on the last 3 bars indicating a rejection of the lows. Still in a downtrend of course but due for a rally to at least 4720 judging by the last two bounces. Also the possibility that that's enough of a sell off for the time being. Small mercies....

3.18 The index is back in the black, up 3.

I've bought some Awe at 178 as they make a small buy signal although they still have work to do to close above the 179 break. It's in the context of a strange looking chart that has the potential for strong acceleration. My idea is that the December rally, which failed to reach November's high, is incomplete. It could still have a 3rd wave to come which might be about 40 cents from the low of 173. Stop is around 170-172.

3.36 Mmx is up at 148 now. Just sold a few more at 147. This was a level where I thought it might start to hit the wall but so far, there's no sign of that.

Xjo is at 4720.

4.12 The match out left the index up 10 points.

Mmx held most of the gains while Kzl and Wsa had encouraging days.

Look sharp. Wed Jan 5

My trading resolution is to be more nimble and decisive. I got out of Aru on the opening for 171.5 because there was no follow through buying and it's one of those situations where everyone is waiting for the music to stop. The stock is at 159 now and Lyc is down 11 at 219.
The other stop was in Ozl where the stock has failed to get through resistance: out at 170.5.

Mmx has started to accelerate as hoped and is 5% higher.

I've also gone long Telstra via calls at about the equivalent of 281. It has got through stiff resistance at 279 and has the potential to run - as the November rally showed - although it would depend on news concerning the broadband network.

12.45 There has been a decent sell off today. With no support from the stocks exposed to Queensland floods and then some selling in resources overnight, the index is now down 35 points. There was a sell signal on the last day of 2010 but I would expect there to be a lot of support from 4620 to 4680 since the index spent a lot of time there in September and October.

2.53 Asian markets haven't really followed our lead; there are falls of 0.1 to 0.3% but the Aussie index has dropped 0.7% and looks likely to test the lows after a fitful attempt to bounce.

I've been in two minds about Wsa but have held on to a long for a few weeks now, deciding to just stick with my price stop rather than using time as well. Anyway, they're performing ok today, up 7 at 611 and continuing a sequence of mildly higher lows within a trading range. Bought a few more earlier at 608 after a positive update.

 4.10 The fitful bounced restarted to leave the Asx 200 off by 28 points.

Mmx and Wsa, at 136 and 613, were reasonably strong at the finish.

Continuity. Tue Jan 4

It's nice to see that the rhythms of yesteryear have carried on. A very strong overnight lead and even stronger trading yesterday in Asian markets led us nicely into the first trading day of 2011. With a surprise drop of 45 points on Friday, it left the market looking cherry ripe for a nice rally. Instead, an early rise of 20 or so points has been reversed and the index is just off its lows at 11.33 am, down 11 points.
I'm not by inclination a permabull, but I felt that our market underperformed last year and became quite cheap. I suppose it doesn't help that Queensland is under water.
Aru and Lyc continue to run hard. Sadly I'm out of Lynas but still have some Aru on board. I sold a few at 162.5 early on.
I've got a new long position in Kagara Zinc at a tick under 84. I'm buying a breakout here but there's a fair bit of strength in this as it looks to me like the chart has moved into the fast section of a third wave. Stop is at around 78.

1.22 Just noticed Intrepid, up at 213. I almost bought back at 201 this morning since I thought I was impetuous to sell out at 201 on Friday.

Market might have bottomed (intraday). Made a slightly higher low at around minus 15 and is back up 2 points.

Mmx still looks poised to pop and I bought a few more at 129 today.

4.13 The final figure was a drop of 3 points in the Asx 200 index but most of the weakness was in stocks with exposure to the Queensland floods like banks and insurers.

Arafura was the pick for me, finishing up 26 (or 17.6%) at 174. Otherwise, the rest of my longs were up except Ozl which slipped a half cent.