Doing our time. Thu Jan 6

Another reasonably positive overnight lead and even the feared sell off in resource stocks didn't happen overnight. The US and UK listed resource stocks held up reasonably well but it looks as if our weakness has to play out before we can start to rally. My scenario for today is for the index to trade below yesterday's intraday low before it can stabilise. Here's the 60 minute chart for the Asx 200.

If it makes a higher low and pushes up I'll be better pleased since I'm long the market.
My positions are generally positive with Mmx continuing its acceleration. Out of about a quarter of the position at 141.5. The chart looks more like a strong retracement rally than anything else and I'm assuming that it may top out below the late October swing low of 154.

12.10 The index dipped below yesterday's intraday low and I wouldn't mind seeing some consolidation now. So far, it's a 4 point bounce to down 9.

The issue with the floods is interesting. Usually with one off events, stocks aren't marked down, once the dust clears, unless it affects the outlook. The papers are saying that inflation could rise by 0.75% but that the Reserve bank will try to look past this flood impact. But right now, the floods haven't eased and the mud hasn't been cleared so people are still trying to work out what the damage will cost.

12.28 Chinese markets are charting quite well. They've had a different trajectory to the Australian market but have been a strong input in the last year.

Here's the HSI.

The Shanghai market has been weaker (after a 20% plus gain in 6 weeks) but held above the breakout of the September highs and has reversed back into the recent range after briefly making a new low.

In the Aussie market, the hint of a bounce has faded and we're on the lows, down 15 at 4700.

2.05 Here's the updated Xjo 60 minute chart. It looks ok now. A minor new low with no follow through and the long tails on the last 3 bars indicating a rejection of the lows. Still in a downtrend of course but due for a rally to at least 4720 judging by the last two bounces. Also the possibility that that's enough of a sell off for the time being. Small mercies....

3.18 The index is back in the black, up 3.

I've bought some Awe at 178 as they make a small buy signal although they still have work to do to close above the 179 break. It's in the context of a strange looking chart that has the potential for strong acceleration. My idea is that the December rally, which failed to reach November's high, is incomplete. It could still have a 3rd wave to come which might be about 40 cents from the low of 173. Stop is around 170-172.

3.36 Mmx is up at 148 now. Just sold a few more at 147. This was a level where I thought it might start to hit the wall but so far, there's no sign of that.

Xjo is at 4720.

4.12 The match out left the index up 10 points.

Mmx held most of the gains while Kzl and Wsa had encouraging days.