Can that be right? Tue Jan 18

The US markets were closed overnight for Martin Luther King day so we've got a sleepy start with the index higher by 4 points after 45 minutes. European markets were flat to a shade down as were commodities.
I've gone long a gold stock, Resolute, on a breakout that's also confirmation of a range break. The trade has a reasonably tight stop but it's almost a value trade too. First the technicals. I'm chasing this but it has been very well bid (and well offered but the buyers have been stronger) for some time and has confirmed a breakout of previous highs from last Thursday. The stock has the chance to accelerate if this turns out to be an expanding pattern. Stop is under the swing low at 144.

The fundamentals are quite compelling. For the first time, it's covered on the FnArena database with Deutsche bank initiating coverage with a buy and a target of 190. Their optimism is based on the Syama project in Mali having solved production problems. The prospective P/E ratios are improbably good, just under 7 for this year and 2.5 for FY12. That would imply the company making almost $300 m next year and it has a market cap just above $700 m.
On top of that, the company has announced that they have upgraded reserves at their Australian Ravenswood operation allowing them a low cost expansion opportunity and the ability to use existing infrastructure for a 10 year, 140k ounces per annum project. There would be a spend of $72 m required to upgrade so I don't whether they'll need an equity raising. They had one recently to fund the closure of gold hedging.
Anyway, I bought at 151 and the stock hasn't accelerated as the usual steady selling has appeared. There's always good buying at the bid though as it looks like one large holder is filtering stock out to one or two large buyers.

11.16 Up 15 now with banks and financials the leaders. My stocks are underwhelming. Bsl and Qan are weaker and close to stops. Karoon was firmer early and I tipped out the extra stock, bought yesterday, at 769. Aax is the best, continuing the pattern of the last few days of steady rises.

1.21 The HSI has opened and is now up 0.4% while the Shanghai index which fell further yesterday to close at about 2700, has reversed back to that level after opening weaker again this morning. The local index is up 15 still but with the tone starting to improve.

I've misread the Bsl chart and I bought what proved to be a consolidation before another leg down. However, I'm confident that it's corrective and (stubbornly? rationally?) I've decided to hold on with a stop at 207. It means I'm risking more than I originally intended but there's a consolidation high at 209 from the run up which could provide support. If it doesn't then the stock is much weaker than I anticipated.

2.28 Fortescue has had a terrific 5% run today on the back of their quarterly production report which wasn't stellar but did underline the point that this is a company who are socking away $1bn in cash each quarter. 

Aax is not far behind with a 4.3% move on the day, up 14 at 337.

The Asx 200 is up 23 points and strengthening gradually but it has been slightly frustrating for me due to Bsl and Rsg which has reversed to be unchanged at 148. Normally I'd be concerned about having bought a temporary high on a bearish reversal day (and I still am a bit worried) but I've been watching this stock for about 6 months and buying will generally step into the breach.  

3.03 Aax is still going, up 20 now. Karoon looks excellent too.

Lifting it all is the Xjo which is now up 40 points with yesterday's sell off erased.

3.51 Fortescue is at 725 and the chart is interesting. My first thought after the initial surge was that it would chop around once it had passed 700 but the nature of the acceleration gives the impression there's more to come. I'm not going to chase it now but if, by some fluke, it retraces early tomorrow then I'll try to buy some.

Ago, Gbg and Mgx are smaller iron ore players and they're all up at least 3%. The one I cover, apart from Fmg, is Murchison. The problem with this stock is that the mine expansion has been delayed so it's missing out on the action. Nevertheless, although the stock is unchanged today, it's looking particular good, with a pennant correction looking close to completion.

4.18 The index closed at 4802 with the Nov and Dec highs being at 4815 and 4812. The intraday peak today was 4809. It would be nice to see us get through.

Bsl recovered to be down 2 at 218 while Resolute held on to 148. The rest of the positions were up with the market. I added a few more Awe at 174.