The run down, and I'll include the spi as I'm ready to start trading that again.
Bhp - performed well in adr form, and the dual listed version Billiton held well in London but is down at 2690; ignoring all that. The stock is dropping again after a failed reversal rally but is too near 2 serious lows to do anything now.
Fmg - broke support at 236 and I've shorted it at 234. I thought I missed this as it sold to 231 but just ticked up to set me. It wasn't necessarily an extended rally to take a reversal but it was a clean 3 wave retracement type pattern in a weak stock.
Ncm - similar to bhp, bounced early off a slightly higher low relative to last week and in a tight range.Rio - much the same as ncm, and I took a short trade here at 4275 which I don't think is that great. Just cut this at 4260, small gain.
Sto - down but chopping about in a range so no trade for now.
Wow - short on a ross hook at 2655. There's a good chance y'day's squeeze might have exhausted the rally.
Wpl - a nice short on a ross hook came through just before 11.30 and I missed the second chance to get on just after at 3368. Rapidly fell to 3329 but is now back up at 3360. I'll wait and see now.
Spi - great ross hook to go short at 3156 but unfortunately missed it. Made new lows at 3127 and has bounced to 3144. Wait.
12.01 The wpl rally back to the break seemed to stall so I shorted at 3356, hoping for second time through momentum.
12.20 Short ncm at 3040 on tight sell signal. Day's low is at 3004 and recent low at 2995 so I need to be careful about a failure to break down. However, gold is continuing to weaken intraday after some softness overnight so maybe there's a chance. Also, lihir gold has just had a capital raising so there's another bearish factor. Anyway, I'll just take the signal when it comes so my hypotheses are a bit irrelevant.
12.28 The spi rally is fading and the positions are starting to drift my way. I'm a bit behind on fmg which I realise was too pre-emptive. If it does fail and fall through 231 having been as high as 238 recently, then I'll have the sell signal I was guessing at. It's just conjecture at the moment and I'm in no man's land - it's not a cut but I shouldn't be in the trade.
12.53 Thought about taking a minor spi signal to buy at 3353 but decided it's too marginal. I'm short fmg, ncm, wow and wpl and expect I might have to cut some things soon but will wait for confirmation.
1.07 Stopped out of wow at 2659 and fmg at 239. Just bought rio at 4271 pre-emptively (yikes) as it's trying to make a higher low versus this morning and yesterday and there's lots of room for a rally even if it's not a strong one and also a tight stop. Ncm is really similar and as I stopped out of my short at 3155 I thought about going long for the same sort of reasons.
1.25 Now long ncm at 3061 and fmg at 242 on a ross hook.
1.43 Sold some ncm at 3095 and rio at 4301 to cover costs. Ncm has confirmed the signal with a breakout similar to bhp above.1.48 Stopped out of last wpl at 3355. Bought some at better prices so made a little after costs.
2.07 Sold a little fmg at 247 for costs. The market is in a tight range here with the tone slightly bullish but momentum obviously slowing. I'm long bhp, fmg, ncm and rio. I'm not close to stops yet and I'm planning a buy in the spi if it trades through 3164. As some kind of a lead, the Japanese market is down less than 1% and the Hang Seng is up a little while US o'night futures have gradually moved from being slightly negative to slightly positive.
2.22 Long the spi at 3166, the early high today was 3171 so if it can breach that then there might be a little acceleration.
2.29 Rio accelerated on breaking through the top of the range so sold a few more at 4355 once it started to stall. Covered costs in bhp at 2726. Got a cut signal in ncm at 3105 but since I'm well up and the pullback doesn't look serious I only sold some, still have half pos'n left. Sto setting up for a buy at 1467 which would be very similar to a whole bunch of other ones today ie a bounce y'day, a pullback to a higher low and then a tight pattern with a breakout. I don't think there's any real strength in the stock though, it would probably just run up if the spi went.
Wpl is similar.
2.46 Stopped out of balance of ncm at 3091 and bhp at 2709.
2.52 Stopped out of the spi at 3156, rio at 4313 and balance of fmg at 247. No positions now.
2.59 That didn't take long....bought some wow at 2665 as it grinds up and breaks through a 3 bar flat top. A bit marginal, I'll keep a tight stop.
3.07 Just did something really stupid. Jumped on a short in fmg at 244 and immediately realised it's not nearly extended enough to take a reversal trade and scrambled out at 245 and 246. It actually looks red hot...as does ncm still. But no opportunity to get back into either of them yet.
3.25 Stopped out of wow at 2653.
3.36 Bought the spi at 3159 on a potential higher low with a 10 point stop. Also bought fmg on a TTE as the high of 252 is 5 cents away and wpl on a 1-2-3 low at 3370. Here's the spi chart.
3.43 Ncm has raced back up but I failed to see it until too late. Chart looks great. I'm in enough things anyway as I have to get out shortly.
3.56 Sold some fmg at 249 and waiting for the match to sell the balance and the small wpl position.
4.11 Fmg matched at 249 and wpl at 3371 for breakeven. We're the only one of 10 markets in our time zone that's down today. Paying for y'day's exuberance I guess. Anyway, it's been a difficult day chopping around in a tight range and I'm reasonably happy with how I've gone. A couple of silly trades, in fmg and a marginal one in wow which were both driven by the desire to do something at the expense of waiting for a nice set up. I was really happy with how I cut. I just got on with it even though it was pretty frustrating at times. I'm still in the spi which trades until 4.30 and unless that runs hard I'll probably be a little down for the day. Actually up on my stock trades but down on the spi.
4.25 Out of the spi now in the low 3160s so actually made a small profit on the day.
16 trades, 7 winners, 7 losers, 2 square. A tough day and a good result. If I keep up the discipline and get another wide ranging day, like y'day, then I'll do well. I'm slowly learning not to overthink it.
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