Friday, March 27, 2009

Sitting on my hands. Fri Mar 27

The market is up yet again, another 1% at 11.19 am. Of my current positions, aoe is down 4, cnm is unchanged and ctx is up in line with the market. The rest are outperforming nicely. Highlights are lnc which is up 21 or 10%, fmg up 5%, gpt up 10% and mgr up 13% so I'm happy with that. Admittedly these are largely low priced stocks so they are prone to move a lot in percentage terms. The US lead was strong again on the back of a reasonable bond auction and a less alarming crunch in GDP than feared with resources being a stand out.
I sold a small amount of fmg and lnc on the opening gaps, but mostly it's a matter of sitting on my existing positions as they're not showing any sign of stopping yet. I have added a new position which is a stock I've had as a potential buy for a couple of weeks. Tabcorp or tah, has finally pushed out of its trading range. I bought, rather tentatively, at 646 as it was already up 18 cents and I was nervous that this was merely a stretching of the trading range but after a pause the run has continued and the stock is now 655. Here's a 60 minute chart for the last month showing how tight the range has been.
The daily follows....
....and the weekly gives some idea of where a rally might find initial resistance. I'd assume around 700.
11.57 The only potential sells - for next week - that I can find are lgl and ncm as they could have made a lower weekly retracement high after a 5 wave rally. Bhp is an outside chance as it has been making higher highs but also lower lows on the weekly while it's still below a handy resistance level of 3600. On the plus side, the property trusts are showing signs of the rally confirming weekly buy signals. Mgr got as far as 99 which it needs to break while gpt has made a daily break today though it's still well below the recent weekly high at 54. Gmg is similar to gpt but much closer to a weekly break and with a little more strength today it can also make a daily signal. I'm watching it fairly closely and might buy on some short term strength. Here's the daily which gives the clearest picture.
I think that a breakout could take this stock to 60 fairly quickly.

1.20 I bought some gmg at 36, deciding that the break above 35 on the 600 minute chart was sufficient to get started because the other time frames and also gpt and mgr are supportive. I also sold a small amount of gpt at 45 and mgr at 97.5 to take a little profit and sold some tls at 324. The market is consolidating after a strong start, US overnight futures are a little weaker and the Friday afternoon of a strong week will often see some profit taking so I thought it wise to sell something.

3.16 I'm leaving early today but the index has given back much of the early rally with the top 200, xjo, up 16 points versus an early high of up 59 points. My positions have deteriorated but fortunately have held relatively well. I sold another handful of mgr at 94.5 and will sell a few more tls at 328 if it gets back to this earlier high. Aoe is the weak spot today but even that is sitting above support and is off its lows for the day.

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