Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Fortescue puffing along behind. Wed June 3

Like an enthusiastic younger brother Fortescue is trying to keep up with the big boys in the sector and has jumped 20c or 7% to 300. I've sold out half my position there (v 279) on a combination of it reaching the first target and the usual profit taking sale. Overall, the market has rallied from a weak start on a slightly positive lead. It's a mixed market with no particular sectors predominating.
Qbe has been weak from the start and as it gapped through 1935 I was looking to sell out my stock hedge so as to put the short back on. I eventually sold stock at 1920 (v 1929 avg).The recent low was 1900 and it's possible we'll find support there and bounce again so I'm prepared to buy the stock back if necessary. I bought back the hedge in Mqg at 3658 as it found support along with the market after early weakness.

1.38 I've put on two new positions, both buys, in Goodman Group and Transurban Limited. One is a property trust and the other an operator of toll roads. They've both been lagging the market but they've made buy signals after what look like completed corrections to me. Gmg, above, had a run up from early March to mid April. The correction (if it's complete) was in 3 waves and now we're driving up. There was a small 4 bar congestion and today the stock has broken the high of that range. I'm long at 28.5.

The chart for Transurban, Tcl, is quite similar although it had a briefer rally into late March and a slow shallow correction. It looks like there might have been a higher low 3 days ago and as this stock is surprisingly volatile for an infrastructure play, I decided to buy some at 410.

This is a judgement call because 5 bars back there was a spike up which calls into question my assessment of this chart. ie you can see that it actually made a higher low and failed new high there. However, since it quickly reversed I've decided to class it as "noise" and take a smaller than usual position.

2.17 Telstra, Tls, has got the same pattern as Gmg and Tcl and has also made a buy signal. The other two tend to move further and faster so I'm sticking with them.

3.49 Heading towards the end of the market day the ASX 200 is up 1.4% when many thought we were due for a down day. I've sold some Mre today at 82 and 86 (v 71) and I've got about a third of my original position left. It's now on its highs at 90. I haven't been very active today; the two new longs are moderate, I've re-shorted Qbe and I've reduced position size in Fmg and Mre. I've also cut the hedge again in Mqg as the rally faltered, covering costs.

4.14 The Xjo kept rallying into the match out to finish up 1.6%.

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