Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Keep on truckin'. Tue June 2

General Motors filed for bankruptcy last night and was replaced in the Dow Jones Industrial Average by Cisco but as it's effectively been nationalised and will continue to operate in a slimmed down form the market focussed on good news re Chinese industrial production and powered on to new highs. Metals were up strongly except for the safe haven, gold, which eased off a few dollars.
I was uncomfortable with the number of positions I had so I've got out of my gold stocks as they stalled this morning, selling the last Lgl June 300 calls for 31 (v 22) and selling half of my Ncm June 3282 calls for 183 (v 136). I hedged the other half with stock which I shorted at 3350. I'm disappointed I didn't get the acceleration I was looking for but I think there's more upside for Ncm so I might get a chance to buy back my hedge if I think it's ready to run again.
I've also sold out some more of my Mqg hedge at an average of 3638 as it keeps surging - it's now 3692.
I'm now taking part profits more consistently so I've sold out some Bhp June 3600 calls at 175 (v 118) and Wpl June 4400 calls at 188 (v 130). I've sold half of my Minara at 81 (v 73) - it's the best mover in the materials sector on the back of the nickel rise last night.
There's one new position, a buy in OZ minerals at 93.2 average. The breakout in Ozl was yesterday really and I was concerned about chasing this but after looking at the chart it seems that there is a good, non extended base from a pull back to 70 a couple of weeks ago.
12.12 Almost forgot, also sold out of my last Ipl Sep 264 calls at 38 (v 16). It's up again and short of my target but I realised that my portfolio was too big.

1.09 Sold a few Ozl at 95.5 (v 93.2) as I'd chased it a bit and I wanted to take a little profit to cover costs. I've got sellers' regret in Ncm as it reversed after early weakness and started to do exactly what I was hoping; so I've bit the bullet and bought back my hedge for a loss at 3400 (v 3350).

1.38 I'm trying to buy some Fortescue at 278 as it made a buy signal when it traded at 277. It's in a large trading range but is making higher lows and with the sector very strong it should have its turn. It's liquid and can have good accelerations.
Just paid 279 for Fmg.

2.34 The market has been stalling for the last hour or so. I decided to sell out the rest of the Bhp June 3600 calls at 173 (v 118) because I'd got on the position late and it's more prone to reversals than many stocks because it trades in the US as well. I also sold a couple more Ncm June 3282 calls at 208 - really about 160ish after the hedging loss - versus a buy price of 136. This was because the stock has been chopping back and forth. I sold the last of my Mqg hedge at 3670. The hedge in total made 183c per option. The purchase price was 160c so they're running for a credit. There's a few weeks to go until expiry and they're still worth about 40c; in the event of a pullback I'd have the opportunity to buy stock again at good levels.
I've also been toying with taking off the hedges in Cba and Qbe as they're also running out of momentum.

3.50 The market is holding up pretty well at up 52 points, down 20 from the high but outperforming the Hong Kong and Tokyo markets.
Mqg has dropped to 3605 so I'm pleased to have undone the hedge.
I took off half of my Qbe hedge earlier at 1957 on an intraday signal. It's close to trading through yesterday's low of 1935 which would be my cue to drop the rest of the hedge. If it holds I'll reinstate all of it. I might have to wait for the match. Here's the daily chart.

4.14 The market rallied a few points into the match. Qbe held up, so I bought the stock back at 1942. Final positions are long Fmg, Mre, Ncm, Ozl and Wpl and short Mqg. Most of the positions are modest in size; for example, I've sold out two thirds of the Ncm, a third of the Ozl and Wpl and half of the Mre.

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