Sitting on our hands. Mon June 29

This is the penultimate day of the financial year in Australia and the market is barely changed, like US markets overnight, although there seems to be some underlying strength as we shrugged off early weakness. It's possible that there'll be a lot of choppy action today and tomorrow as tax driven activity and fund manager window dressing competes with the normal flow of business.

I was stopped out of Ncm early at 2987 (v 3050) as it went through yesterday's low and also the previous swing low on the 60 minute chart. I've also put on a few long positions which I'm having second thoughts about so I'll probably chop them for small gains or losses fairly soon.

I'm getting bullish about Fortescue again.

It needs to trade at 387 which is above Friday's high for me to get a buy signal. This morning there was a lower low so I'd have a pivot at 386. I like the context of the signal; there was the big spike and a chart correction which I'm hoping bottomed out on the 4th bar back. If that scenario is right I can expect a new high. I got a bit excited and bought some early at 381. Fortunately, the stock is now 383 and if it keeps rising I'd try to finish my buying at 387.

2.50 I bought Telecom New Zealand earlier at 218 as it broke out of a range but had misgivings that I was chasing a breakout in a choppy market which is a dangerous game as they often fail. It slipped right back to 214 but has resumed the run and I'm hopeful of holding it overnight now.

3.35 Paid for my haste in Fmg as I sold out at 373 as it failed to break out and started selling off. I'm trying to do nothing and just wait for the new financial year.

4.10 The market has matched out towards the bottom of the day's range with a loss of 17 points. Most Asian market are weaker and US overnight futures are down about 0.6%. I'm still long some Cfx and Ozl which are little changed on the day along with Tel which has closed on its high at 220. I'm not reading too much into a choppy day with light volume and presumably many market participants are waiting for Wednesday and the new financial year.