Monday, June 7, 2010

3% solution. Mon Jun 7

After an hour we're down 3% and it has been quite orderly with a 2.5% opening drop and a slow grind for the rest. Mmx was somewhat forgotten early and I got out at 191. I've actually bought a handful in the mid 180s to try and sell out later. Otherwise, I haven't bought back shorts, or put on new ones. I'm waiting for some sort of bounce to offer better opportunities.
There doesn't seem to be a lot of bearishness around but locals will probably think we're cheap to reasonably priced as a market. The issue is going to be carry trade sellers with resources and the AUD hard hit overnight. So, I'm hoping for an intraday bounce to supply an opportunity to put on a few short positions but not necessarily expecting one to come along.

12.14 Comparative strength - a drop of less than 3% - in the Hang Seng, along with milder falls of 1.5% in Shanghai, are helping the Australian market consolidate after it continued to grind lower into midday. We're still down 3% though.
I missed a chance to short Fmg on the first intraday rally when it recovered to 402 but I'm hoping that one or two stocks out of list of 6 potential shorts will rally enough to make a new short position worth while.

1.36 I'm left with a long option position in Lgl and a couple of modest shorts positions in Ipl and Sgp which are performing in line. I sold half of my Mqg June 45 calls on Friday for a reasonably good price but sold the rest this morning for 53, losing about half the premium. Unfortunately, I missed hedging these last few calls by not being agressive enough on the Friday afternoon match; it would have more than paid for the premium loss.
I'd like to put on a couple of new positions but most of them are too far gone. I'm not willing to chase so it's a quiet time for me as I wait for an opportunity to present itself. Tomorrow or Wednesday are looking more likely than today.
Cey is probably the closest thing. Here's the daily chart.

It had a very sharp rally which looks like it was 5 waves, implying short term completion. It could slip back down towards the 355 lows and it's not far away from the high of 440 recorded last Thursday. I'm waiting on this because the market has had one intraday bounce now and pulled back. I think there's a good chance of a second bounce which may give me a better entry. It's trading at 417.

3.26 I've put on the short in Cey at 413. The futures rallied but most of my stocks didn't perform and as this started to slip I had to chase it. It has quite quickly dropped to 409.
I'm glad to get something on but I'll be happy to see this rally tomorrow if the broad market pushes up because it would give me some opportunities elsewhere.

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