Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Reversion to mean. Tue Jun 29

Another flat lead going into trading and after having underperformed for a few sessions, it looks like we're in for a catch up day.
I've bought back the last of my short position in Bsl at 219 and gone long 6 different stocks, mostly just for the day. The two positions I'm likely to hold for longer are in Ipl and Sgp.
Incitec Pivot lacks downside momentum. The last couple of rallies have tended to overlap and congest. The latest minor sell off has stalled above the May lows and I've gone long at 287 with a stop around 273.

It was up by the stairs and down by the elevator shaft for Stockland Group, aided by going ex dividend. It's not in an obvious downtrend, just back towards the bottom of the range, so I'm long at 368 with a stop around 350. Trading through yesterday's high of 372 might be enough to generate a snap back.

12.45 The early strength has evaporated with the Hang Seng dropping early on. It's a shame for my day trades which were going well for a while. Ipl and Sgp are holding up reasonably well, while my only short position is Asciano is down. Not the worst day then, but I'd like to see a higher low and another run up this afternoon.

2.01 The Hang Seng and Shanghai markets are dragging us down with falls of 1 to 2% although it really just tells you how negative sentiment is here in the short term, because their last 5 trading days have been mildly weaker compared to our sharp falls, ie their relative strength was not a mitigating factor last week, but their relative weakness is a big influence today.

4.12 The Xjo index just kept driving down as the mainland Chinese markets continued to fall. US overnight futures have followed that lead and are down close to 1%.
I took a hit on my intraday trades while Sgp is still up and Ipl is only slightly weaker.

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