The rally to 10600 was about 50% of the fall from the April high. The rally in the Xjo has been very whippy, so I'm not keen to chase any shorts, but I'd be inclined to sell any recoveries in the next few days. No point worrying about that now, the Spi is down 45 points so we'll open weak, at least. Base metals held up and so did gold, so there are a few bright spots.
The risk/reward of being long has changed with the Dow weakness and given that we've sold after after getting close to the 4650 level, it's likely that the short term upside is more limited now.
10.20 Out of a few longs which I'm less confident about, like Ozl at 104 and the last of my Mre at 68. I've pulled the trigger and bought some Telstra at 328 as it seems like the short term profit taking is over and with the resources having tired, it's possible that attention will turn to this one. It's easier to see the logic with a look at the 60 minute chart. Emergency stop is at around 312, just below the last swing low.
2.51 With June 30th approaching and a fairly small set of positions on board, I'm in end of term mood. My visitors today were social and I've been playing table tennis. Even managed to win a game against a friend who's a bit of a champion but I suspect that after winning about 8 straight, he might have taken pity on me.
One thing I've noticed about table tennis is that I go a lot better if I don't try to hit winners but concentrate on staying in the game. I mentioned this to my skillful friend and he agreed - he used to play with an elderly Chinese gentleman at Easts Leagues Club in Bondi Junction and was usually beaten by the patient style of the old master. There are obviously parallels to be drawn with trading; stay in the game, manage risk, don't worry about winners, they'll come without you trying and don't take on old, frail looking Chinese guys.
3.06 I sold out of half my Cgf yesterday at 350, thinking that they were outperforming in a soft market and they did indeed reverse back down. They're now at 328 and I need to stop out of the rest as they're through the recent low of 334. I'm hoping for a small rally to get a better price.
Telstra is up to 330 though and my short in Sgp is going well. The other two positions are gold related and although they're down, it's not by much and most of the stocks in the sector are firmer.
4.10 We've outperformed on the downside again, with the market closing on its lows with a loss of 1.6%. The Hang Seng is down by less than 0.5% and US overnight futures are mildly firmer.
I've held the last of the Cgf as 5% seems overdone and I'm already only carrying a half position size.
I'd like to do some bargain hunting but might try to pick up a cheapie early tomorrow if there's a bounce and one of my stocks gets left behind.
No comments:
Post a Comment