Out of synch. Wed Jun 30

The financial year ends today in Australia. A year ago, the Xjo index closed at 3955 and in mid April it breached 5000. The last 10 weeks have sent us falling back to earth and with the index down nearly 2% at 4269, we're set for a humble 7 or 8% gain on the year.

I probably shouldn't have traded this month because of the World Cup - I've been tired and out of synch. One of my two scenarios for the index was for it to rally towards 4650 and then drop to new lows but I somehow managed to get bearish too early, then bullish too late and ended by missing a nice short side opportunity over the last week or two.

I've compounded the error yesterday because although I belatedly realised just how negative sentiment was as the day rolled on, I didn't re-short Fortescue, which I'd identified as my best downside opportunity and that's lower by 5%.
The longs were ok, Ipl was a reasonable risk/reward but has stopped me out today in the low 270s, while Sgp is actually up on the day. I've bought back my short in Asciano at 162.

The Hang Seng is just opening and so far, the losses are contained while mainland Chinese markets are down a respectable enough 1 or 2%. Meanwhile, US overnight futures are fractionally higher. It's meant that there's been a nervy intraday rally which could go either way. There's a big gap to be filled on the upside but it's obviously a strong downtrend.

I'm planning to have a couple of days off, so may not post tomorrow and Friday and am unlikely to put on any new trades today.

4.06 I'm still holding onto a couple of minor long positions in Challenger and Stockland and apart from some end of year admin tomorrow morning, that'll be it until Monday.

4.12 That's the end of another financial year and although it has been a grind, I've learnt a lot and it started to pay off quite well in the second half of the year.
My goal, and something I've started already, is to do fewer trades, especially intraday and to spend less time watching the market.
My reasoning is that my intraday trading is only mildly profitable but it takes up a lot of time, adds a lot of stress, and it probably costs me money overall because when I'm active intraday, I tend to miss my longer term opportunities.
The market did quite well to only finish down 1% and it closed the year at 4301.5, almost 9% higher.

PS. I forgot about dividends. When they're included, it takes the annualised gain up to a very respectable 15%.