Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Dow still closed, switching from BHP to RIO

Overall the market is only down 4 points as there wasn't much of a lead overnight. The European markets were weak and bhp and rio fell equally in the UK but the switch to rio continues here.

11.25 I like fmg and there was a buy signal midway through the 11am bar. It hasn't moved far though and I still might be able to buy some. Bhp is probably a cautious sell, rio is very strong but there's no buying point for me. Wpl is in a tight range and could go either way, ditto for wow.

11.31 Bought fmg at 277. The buy signal was at 276 so haven't missed much. Everything else is a bit tight. Bhp broke support that had held for the previous 7 trading days on the open and is not managing to bounce convincingly back through this level which is at about 3190 so I'm watching it for a short.

11.58 Out of fmg as it's closing with a doji below the opening high. I've been looking at a short in ncm and haven't taken it. There's a bit of a head and shoulders with a level at 3357.

12.03 Oops, there it goes. Ncm skipped straight through 3350. Maybe, I'll get a short on here although it's very thin. Sold a little at 3347 and hoping for a rally to sell a bit more.

12.13 Sold the rest of the ncm for 3345 as it couldn't rally. I've been looking at a long in lgl but I've decided to wait for a break of 340, ie a strong signal, as it's in a range.
Short bhp at 3179. A small sell signal although it's still within the range of the opening bar.

12.24 Short a little wpl at 3257. Not that keen on this so let's see if can follow my routine properly.
The spi seems to be setting up for a fall with a solid break of support. Fmg and rio are looking close to a sell.

12.41 Shorted rio, sto and wow as the market fell broadly. Rio is one of those hair trigger reversal trades but I don't think it's as good as the recent ones in fmg, for example, as it had only just cleared the highs from the other day. Actually looking more closely it's made a double top at 5200 so maybe I should give this a bit more room.

1.00 Shorted fmg at 267 as it fell tho' it's steadied up to 269. Just shorted lgl at 333 so now short 8 out of 8 of my stocks. However, I bought back half or more of bhp, ncm, rio, sto, and wpl on a sharp dip as the spi fell to 3420 having fallen 60 points in an hour.

1.10 Bought back short ncm as it broke my trailing stop.
Fmg is right on support. I'd like to see it break through.

1.29 The stocks have been rallying slightly but not enough to stop me out. I'm pleased that the bar is ending as I can tighten up my stops a bit.

When I get more adept at this type of trading I'd like to do some pyramiding. For example, sto consolidated for one bar and I could have added to my short at 1469. However, I'm still short 7 out of 8 of my positions. I'd be more comfortable pyramiding if I only had one or two positions and could focus on it more fully.



Here's a chart for sto. I took a short at the start of the 6th bar after the low of the third bar of the small rally was breached. You can see the opportunity to add to the short now. Chart is as at about 1.40.









1.51 Just bought back fmg for square at 267. Seems like the old story in fmg of being too inpatient but it did fall and then rally quite rapidly. It also looks a bit similar to the wpl chart which I put on Sunday's post where a 5th wave failed to break support then reversed.



Here's the chart.





2.03 Decided to sell more rio at 5080, ie to pyramid as it seems to be making a stronger sell signal here.


2.17 Closed out bhp at 3159. It made new lows then rallied straight back with the spi. Lgl is rallying and I'm a bit worried about it.


2.25 Stopped out of lgl at 336 and the last of the short sto at 1474. Closed out the second lot of short rio at 5036, nervous about pyramiding. Also stopped out of wow so now only short half the original quantity of rio and wpl.


2.38 Ncm is rallying a bit but not convincing yet. Would like a better set up if I were to buy it. Wpl is back at the 3200 level from which it bounced on Friday. I think it won't hold but I'll wait and see.


2.57 Bought back rio - a bit prematurely as the market rallied a bit. Ncm held so I went long, lgl and spot gold are also firm. Just bought some fmg at 269 on the pattern I mentioned earlier. So now still short a tiny bit of wpl, long ncm and fmg.


3.07 Stopped out of wpl at 3225. Bought lgl on the earlier buy signal at 341. So now, no shorts and long fmg, lgl and ncm.


3.20 Realised I'd been wrong covering rio and tried to short again and only got a few away at the wrong price so I scratched them for a few dollars my way. Ncm has spiked up and I've sold most of them out as it's past 3 and sold half my lgl.


3.30 Sold the rest of the lgl at 344. Still looks good and could be a good opportunity tomorrow. Ditto for ncm at 3393. They were running so fast that I went to the 10 minute chart and took the trailing stop there. I'm not sure if that's just going to confuse me but I think I can justify it towards the close.


3.36 Just long some fmg as we near the close. I doubt if there'll be any fresh trades and I'm just hoping for a little bonus with a run up in fmg. Having said that, I've been toying with a tiny buy in sto for a rally in to the close if it trades through 1469. It's at 1465 right now.


4.04 No more trades and selling the last of my fmg into the match. It didn't rally alas.


Also answered my own question about taking a 10 minute signal in lgl and ncm as they both resumed and are at their highs.


Overall, today was a better day and I made reasonable money given the postion size. 14 trades, 9 winners, 3 losers and 2 scratch. No dumb trades today so that's a major improvement. I cut my losers very well. I'm still too anxious to cut short my winners though - it didn't cost too much but I would have made more in rio, lgl and ncm.


It was a pretty volatile day so I feel like I should have made a bit. However, it still had to be done and I was pleased to make the switch from short to long later in the day.

Here's a chart of ncm. It was excellent for day trading today. A short that I caught on the 4th bar of the day then a little buy signal in the middle of the day setting up for a strong finish.



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