However, the Aussie market is outperforming again and we're only down 40 points at 11.47 am which is 1.2%. Since, the hedge funds finished smashing the Aussie market in the last 6 months of 2008 as they rushed to repatriate their money, our tendency has been to outperform.
At first glance, my regular stocks look more likely to rally.
Bhp - made a higher low and flirted with a buy signal at 2881. May try again.
Fmg - suspended pending an issue.
Ncm - weak and falling now after having broken y'day's low, rallied back to the break and slipped again. Would like to get on board but just too late.
Rio - very similar to bhp, buy point is at 4610.
Sto - tight range for first 4 bars. Overall, on the bigger scales it looks weak and I'd sell on some reasonable momentum through 1425.
Wow - still ranging but much more interesting as it looks like it could plausibly break a one month range with a bit of a rally.
Wpl - quite firm. Oil was weak overnight but stock is only down 9 cents with a buy above 3281.
12.17 Wpl is a buy now at 3283 but I don't want to deal on a blip up so I'm just holding off for now. 12.19 Ok, it's still not falling back so trying to buy half pos'n at 3285. Had to pay up a bit to 3290 to even get half but it should drift back so I can complete.
12.23 Completed the wpl pos'n at 3290 on a slip back from 3296. The spi is holding but not rallying so we'll see how wpl pans out but it's a pretty clear break.
Here's the chart at 12.27.12.33 Sto has made a buy signal although again on light volume. I'll wait again to see if it holds. Bhp, wow and wpl also close to a buy signal.
12.36 Bought a little sto at 1442, a bit of buying is appearing just below the market although overall the spi is still in a range.
12.42 Completed sto at 1446 and long bhp now at 2882. Rio is also nearing 4612 where I'd try to buy as it would be the second time through. I have mixed feelings about bhp; it's made a solid buy signal but it seems unlikely to push through yesterday's low of 2913.
1.08 My stocks are extremely thin today and I'm not keen to have super tight stops as the spi is resolutely in its range. Ncm has had a bit of a rally, getting back towards the 3270 level it fell from. I can't really see a trade there. I could have tried to play the retracement rally but it would have been a bit tight.
1.31 A pretty dull day but still holding up well relative to the Tokyo and Hong Kong indices. I've been close to cutting in all 3 of my open positions, bhp, sto and wpl.
1.39 Ncm got back up to 3272 but is losing momentum. There's a short on a sustained fall through 3245 but I don't want to do anything yet as it's so rangy. On days like these you can get chopped about. If anything ncm reminds me of sto y'day when there were 3 small retracement bars which then accelerated up.
1.59 Wpl announced a gas discovery, I don't know how significant. The stock is at 3320, I've got half left having sold some earlier to cover costs and a touch at 3316 on the blip up. So far, I sold a few bhp soon after my entry at 2884 and then a fraction at my cut level of 2870. As in wpl, I let the stop go a tiny bit wider while watching the spi stay tightly in a range.
2.10 The futures contract is still in a narrow band but ticking towards the top of it at least. Wow is looking interesting on a break through 2808 or perhaps 2812. Wpl now at 3379, I sold a tiny bit more at 3372.
2.21 Out of the balance of bhp at 2870. I had run the stop by a cent or two only but I'd given it 90 minutes to rally back and the best it managed was a small run to 2880 which quickly failed. Rio which has a similar chart is also sliding back. Sto is firm at 1448 although not going anywhere fast and wpl is consolidating at 3360. My stop for the balance is at 3339 - I bought at an average of 3289 and the stock has reached 3389 so I want to keep half the unrealised profits as a worst case. I'm obviously hoping that the rally resumes.
2.29 Attempting to buy a small amount of ncm at 3273 as for the 5th candle in a row it pushes up. Set now for a half pos'n.
2.33 Here is a 30 minute chart of the March futures contract. A very dull day so far.
2.58 The futures have convincingly rallied through 3300 and I bought rio a short time ago at 4615, wow at 2809 and sold ncm - for no reason, I was distracted with something else, for scratch. Subsequently, went again in bhp at 2885.
3.22 Wpl had made a tight inside bar which gave me a stop at 3356. I didn't really want to take it but compromised with half of my balance at 3352 and the other still with the wide stop of 3339. Bhp, rio and wow had pulled back a little after their spurts but are now pushing back up and the spi is near the day's highs at 3315. I'm long bhp, rio, half my sto, wow and a small balance of wpl. Long everything except ncm which I sadly cut and is now at 3297.
3.40 Stopped out of the balance of sto at 1446, had sold some at 1453 earlier. Consolidating again as the market got to the earlier highs and has slipped slightly.
3.49 Stopped out of rio at 4630 (stop was at 4624, got slightly better). Sold half earlier at average of 4653. Sold a little wow to cover costs at 2816 but only a few minutes to go. Sold bhp at 2894 and 2899, just a small balance left.
3.58 Sold balance of bhp at 2898. Don't want to wait till the 4.10 match out because we're trading at a premium to the US close of 2875 and there's no particular momentum. Also sold a bit more wow.
4.11 Sold balance of wow at 2818 and wpl at 3360.
7 trades on the day and all long. 5 winners, 1 loser, 1 scratch. Did most things well enough, especially avoiding trades during the long period where the market went sideways. One small error in ncm and a profitable day overall.
The best trade was in wpl. Here's how it went for the rest of the day. The main thing I did was to not stop out of all my position during the consolidation around 3300 during the middle of the day as the stock was thin and whippy at the time.
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