Friday, February 27, 2009

Drift off or dress up? Fri Feb 27

The local market is already down 20 points and seems likely to drift off further today as the US indices offer no encouragement and we might find it hard to muster up enough enthusiasm to bid things up esp. with qbe and wow weak after their results. It's the last trading day of February though so could all reverse in the last hour or so.
The oil market is showing signs of moving out of oversupply and that sector could be a bright light and perhaps drag the overall resources up.
Early round up:
Bhp - towards the bottom of the range on daily charts without a lot of momentum, but from my point of view, trading in the very short term it's broken the low of the last 4 weeks recorded on Tuesday this week and failed to bounce back through that 2848 level. It's 2847 now and I'd like to take a short trade on the second time through 2848 assuming it continues to tick up a little.
Fmg - quite undecided, up 6 cents but spiked up early and looks like it's making a lower high. I think it would be well to only trade small while it's still in the range of y'day's opening 2 bars.
Ncm - strong bullish reversal this morning as gold failed to fall heavily. No opportunities for now but since it's moving it could offer a good trade later.
Rio - just bought some at 4730 as it breaks through yesterday's high and then through today's high.
Sto - I like the oils (eg aoe which I'm not trading intraday) and could see this running again today. For some reason this was sold down 30 cents on the open but is now even at 1501. Buy above 1512.
Wow - reported today and down 5% on the result. Only slightly below par but it's been a safe haven so there's bound to be a few nerves. Had a small rall off its lows. Don't fancy buying on the reversal pattern that's formed. Wait for dev'ts.
Wpl - sold off a strongish open but having another go. Buy is at 3636 on new highs. Pretty positive on the daily chart so I expect this to go again today.

11.51 Bought wpl at 3636. Here it is on a 30 minute and daily basis.

I've included the daily chart for context. In this time frame, I generally don't want to get too distracted by the bigger picture but with wpl quite extended, having run 12% in a couple of days, I want to see how plausible it is that the run can continue.

12.06 Long sto at 1514. Bhp has rallied more strongly than I expected too so it's definitely a day for the resources. Fmg now setting up a little bullishly.

12.14 After the fiasco of y'day I'm trying to just sit on my good trades rather than try to force a bunch of second rate ones.

12.22 Here's sto, it looks pretty awesome for today. I hope it goes on with it. Did sell a fraction at 1534 to cover dealing costs and some wpl earlier at 3656 for the same reason.

12.35 Short a little ncm at 3084 as it resumes its fall after a good little countertrend rally. I only took this trade because overall the downtrend is still in place.

12.56 The market is becalmed and I've been fretting about the ncm trade, small that it is, from the instant I put it on. It's too marginal and exactly what I'm trying to avoid. Volume is tiny although at least there's starting to be a regular little queue of sellers of slightly bigger size now that spot gold is down 6 dollars intraday.

1.11 We just had a touch of the wobbles and everything blipped down. Took the opportunity to get out of ncm for cost covering but decided to stay with my longs as rio held and sto and wpl are running and deserve more than a simple trailing stop.

1.19 Long wow at 2678. A small position as I chased this a bit after it broke through 2669. I'll keep a tight stop as it looks like a 3 wave retracement rally but having fallen a lot today there's room for a bit more of a rally. The wpl pullback is really stretching the friendship.

1.46 Wow got up to 2690 but is reversing sharply. Got out at 2682 to make a bit more than costs. Still long rio, sto and wpl. Rio and wpl are about where I got in which is a bit disappointing given that the market is near the day's highs. However, they had been a bit extended and they've chopped around without falling much from their highs so I'm hopeful of some action later.

1.51 Wpl is a bit of an experiment as it actually made a little topping out pattern that I might have shorted on another day. At the moment I would have been better off to have cut and reversed at 3640 odd but I'm trying to reduce turnover and also prioritise clearly trending stocks. I may end up losing a bit more on some of these by having wider stops but when they go well I expect to more than make up the difference.

2.17 Out of wpl at 3615. Also stopped out of rio at 4712. Bought some more sto at 1543 a bit earlier as it makes new highs.

2.46 The market turned around again and I've bought back into rio at 4727 and wpl at 3630. I'm not so sure about wpl now as the pullback overlapped the previous high so it's not trending so clearly as it was. I tipped out the extra sto I bought at 1550 as it started to drop but still have the stock from 1514 this morning. I've shorted ncm at 3060 as it seems to have made a genuine break down.

2.50 I'm long fmg at 270. I watched it go to 268 which was my first buy point but wanted to see more volume, hence chased it up a bit to 270. Wow had a sharp fall from the earlier 3 wave rally. It was just about tradeable but I missed it.

3.06 Short some wow at 2652. A bit late on this but broke some earlier supports. A pretty tight stop here because I'm a latecomer.

3.10 Thinking about my experience with stetching my stops on conviction trades and I need to take a few things on board. I still need a few clear rules on this otherwise it's easy to get anxious because I'm in two minds.

3.17 Sold half of my balance in sto at 1541. Decided I'd have a tight cut for half and give the other half a bit more room. It's an arm wrestle today with the market chopping quite wildly, not great for me.

3.23 I've got to leave fairly soon so bought back ncm for an average of 3052 as it races back to where I shorted it from.

3.28 Wow has sunk fast to 2606. I bought half back along the way and now that it's falling extremely fast I'm going to move my stop tight for the balance. Window dressing could easily turn things around rapidly.

3.34 Out of wow at 2600 as it has a slight rally and I've got other things to watch.

3.39 Keen to get out of sto now as it made a marginal new high at 1560 and has slipped back quickly to 1548. Out now at 1546.

3.48 Stopped out of wpl again at 2608 average, rio at 4720 and fmg at 264 as the rally failed.

11 trades, 4 winners, 4 losers, 3 scratch for a small gain on the day. Managed to confuse myself with thoughts on running wider stops, but in kind of a good way, as I think I might have shattered a couple of illusions and areas of wishful thinking but also cleared up a few things too.

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