Friday, February 13, 2009

Strange days

I found it a bit strange, starting so late today. I got into town reasonably early and even after a leisurely breakfast it was only 9.30. I did a bit of admin and mooched around to look at the open. Since I don't trade until 11.30 I listened to a meditation tape for a while.
It's 11.30 now and I can see I haven't missed much. There was a little buy opportunity in fmg at the open which might have made a few bucks, otherwise an indecisive market - the US was very weak all night then rallied strongly towards the close to break even.

The trade I fancy is to short rio, so I'm looking for a break below 4990.
Lgl and ncm are giving ross hook entries but I feel more uncomfortable than usual with this signal and am neglecting it.

11.41 Sold wpl on a break of 3207 - a bit unconvinced on this.
Sold rio - had to chase them to 4980 but feel good about this trade.

11.50 wow is shaping up bullishly and I notice that the resources are drifting off relative to strength in industrials and financials so it could be a typical Friday unwind day.
ncm and lgl are already drifting back while bhp looks weak.

12.20 market tracking sideways. rio making me nervous - holding well, bhp setting up for a short, wow still in their tight range.

12.45 the spi has been tickling up and I've cut my two shorts for small losses and bought fmg on a traders trick entry (Joe Ross terminology) at 264. It's a bit of a frustrating day and I'm not too convinced by this trade but feel that I'm in a bad habit of ignoring some bullish signals.
Wpl is also giving me an unorthodox buy signal of the type I discussed yesterday where a sustained move peters out in a small range bar. So I'm long at 3211.

12.55 lgl is weak and ncm is suggesting a lower high. I'll sell a break below 3445 or this bar's low if it turns out to be a bit higher.

1.03 bought bhp, a bit late at 3235 after the signal was at 3230. Like most of my bullish positions today I'm uncomfortable but trying to be patient.

1.12 bought wow on trades above 2790 but the stock is very thin so maybe I've been hasty.
Just sold fmg out at my entry price of 264. The pattern was implying some acceleration but with the spi continuing to firm the stock was going nowhere fast.

1.31 realised quite rapidly that I was too impatient in fmg and bought some back at 266. Also sold out of bhp and wpl, bhp far too early. I think I'm still driven by the fear of losing and I'm too quick to bail out of good positions. There's also a degree of overthinking where I'm overlaying a general view and not seeing the trade clearly enough. For example, I'm bearish today and have not let bull trades run.
While there's a heirarchy of signals it still pays to keep your eyes open.

Short ncm, a little at 3450, waiting to add a bit more.

2.07 Got Szechuan chicken at Lee's Malaysian which I ate at my desk. Realised that I have to leave early today, about 2.30ish so got out of wow for a small loss as it was still stuck in the range and sold fmg out at 271. It still looks good but is consolidating.

2.16 Just need to buy back ncm which is in a very tight range. Depending on what price I pay it'll be either a very small profit or loss, so today is about breakeven.
A small loss as it turns out...
Ncm also seems like it will finish strongly as the pullback hasn't come. If I was able to trade till the close I'd go long here.

So, it's a very short trading day for me. Starting at 11.30 and finished by 2.20. There were three trades I liked which were short rio, short ncm and long wow. All of these resulted in cuts leading to small losses and my overall view of the market which was to start to fall from mid morning was completely wrong. Despite all that, or perhaps because these opinions were clouding my mind, I missed the chance to make much better money in bhp, fmg and wpl and could easily have done quite well.

Will I be able to learn from these mistakes? I hope so, that's partly the point of this diary.

I'm very happy about the wpl trade. It's a set up I've been looking at for a long time and I feel like this process of diarising has clarified my ideas about it. If anything it deserves a more aggressive approach.

I'm trading a fraction of my usual size right now as I want to be sure that this approach works for me before I start to scale it up. I know that this sort of trading is very workable I just wasn't sure if I had the right focus for it. I'm starting to think that I do.

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