Friday, February 20, 2009

New closing low for the dow, rio issue?

The US lead was weak as the dow made a new closing low and intraday low relative to the one in late November last year.
It's 11.20 now and early leads are interesting, particularly that bhp is up 1% and rio down nearly 4% despite rio being up 6% in London and bhp up 2%. I assume that there's a strong hint of an issue rather than a sell down to Chinalco. Technically the stock failed to convincingly breach 5200 yesterday.
Otherwise the golds are down and the oils up in line with the overnight leads. We've fallen steadily from the open to be down 43 points but there's probably room for further falls.

I've decided to cut lgl from my list to try and reduce the number of trades I do. After cutting out the silly or tight trades I would still have quite a lot to watch and lgl, with it's high volume and relatively small ranges, isn't that great for an intraday breakout style.

Bhp pushed up to 3052, through yesterday's high by a cent or two and still looks quite positive.
Fmg is chopping around near support. No trade for a while here.
Ncm is heavily down but with no signals.
Rio the same.
Sto broke through yesterday's high of 1462 and is pulling back. Potential buy on a very tight bar or else wait for a new high at 1472.
Wow could drive down today. Sell at 2730.
Wpl ran early and is pulling back. It actually looks a bit weak but the reversal bars have too large a range to take a short trade.

Fmg made a small doji with a higher low than the open. Pre-emptive buy would be at 293 because I think the correction is complete and the top of the early range is 306 so a failure could still make me money.


11.48 Short wow at 2729. It just popped straight back up a few cents and I sometimes wonder whether I should build slowly into these range break type positions.

12.13 Nothing much happening. Wow coming close to stopping me out.

12.21 The charts for xjo and the spi are starting to make the matching reverse colour candlesticks which could indicate a bit of a rally developing later.

12.24 Bought fmg at 293. Volume is rather thin today which is a concern.
Out of wow at 2744.

12.48 Stopped out of fmg at 289 as the potential bullish reversal was only a pause in the down trend. Wow starting to go through earlier lows. May go again there.

12.51 Short ncm as it breaks 3354 after pausing there for 3 bars.

12.58 Sto looks weak and I'm tempted to take a short trade as it's behaving a bit like wpl. Ie Both rallied up on the overnight rise in the oil price but dropped steadily since finding no support. Have been back to square on the day. The difference is that wpl was more extended and would actually have been a reasonable short. I'll think about it on a break through 1440.
Only position right now is short ncm which is going my way slightly.

1.21 Decided to short fmg at 287. This is pre-empting a lower high and unlike yesterday support is quite close. Already slightly regretting it although I do like the signal.

I was thinking some more about the best signals. I was bearish wpl but shied away from the trade thinking the bars were too big. In fact, it was more to do with my scaling and I could have easily taken the short at about 3405. What's interesting is a stock that's already quite extended and continues on the back of early interest before reversing.

1.30 Closed out last half of my ncm as it stopped me out at my entry level.

1.44 Long half pos'n in rio at 4962 as it reverses a bit.

1.59 Long ncm at 3363 as it seems to be following the pattern of rio which is going on with the reversal. Ditto for wpl at 3363. Bhp close as it rallies back to 3044.

2.19 Cut rio to keep something after sharp dip from 5028. Cut wpl at 3354 for small loss on reversal.

2.33 Cut ncm 3371. Only one pos'n, short fmg. The market is indecisive. Rio has steadied up again and looks the best of the stocks that reversed with another entry signal at 5029.

2.48 Scratch in fmg as I've got to go soon. The spi is having a more sustained rally but fmg really does look shabby so maybe I should have waited a bit longer.

Slightly down and half looking for a little catch up trade...which is a small short in wpl as it makes new lows and another half trade in rio. In that case a traders trick entry where there's enough room on the downside.
3.06 Short fmg at 283 as the fall is gathering momentum and I could make some money before I leave in about half an hour!

3.13 Cut rio and immediately regret all 3 trades as the motivation and time frame are poor.
My personal El Guapo is impetuousness.

3.35 Out of wpl - scratch trade.

3.37 Gave to go soon.

10 trades, 1 still open, 3 winners, 4 losers, 2 break even for a slight loss.
A pretty quiet day with few missed opportunities except perhaps that chance in wpl. Having to leave early has worked against me a little as I fretted about fmg and cut a good position too early.
Out of fmg at 281 and off to yoga.

No comments:

Post a Comment