Wednesday, December 16, 2009

A degree of consistency. Wed Dec 16

I was late in this morning but pretty confident that we would rally after early weakness following a negative overnight lead because the reversal in the Xjo chart was mirrored in a lot of individual stock charts and the recent underperformance would give some momentum to any buying.
It's approaching 11.30 am and we are indeed up 14 points and 30 points above a briefly weaker open. Most of my positions are performing quite well with Cey up 9 at 362 and Aoe up 9 at 402 being the standouts.
I closed out the last of the Ozl short position at 115 (v 118).

11.40 I'm long a number of stocks on bullish reversal set ups but there are a couple of trades I missed which have performed well and it might be instructive to check them out.
The first obvious one is Alumina. I covered this a couple of days ago but it's interesting to see how well it has gone.

I was so busy trying to eke a few more cents out of the remnants of a short position that I didn't see the potential set up on the fourth bar back. It still would have been a marginal one to take but a good example of not wanting a perfect elliott wave count before taking a position. For example, you could interpret the turning point 4 to 6 bars back as a failed 5th wave low and a reversal.

The next one is Csr where I was debating taking a position but was cautious that momentum seemed too strong on the downside still. Not the worst logic but the opportunity to get long at about 165 with a stop at 160 versus a target in the high 170's meant that the risk/reward was roughly 2 to 1 in my favour and a reasonable trade.

12.14 Took a little profit, sold a couple of Cey at 365 (v 336), Mgr at 153 (v 149) and Ost at 318 (v 303).

2.04 The early enthusiasm has worn off and we're now down 8 points in quiet trading. I'm finally having some joy in Asciano which I've been short for a while. It's down at 171, although I stretched my stop a little as it made a couple of marginal new highs after my initial short.
3.39 Just sold out a couple of Aoe at 400 (v 395.5) and All at 402 (v 385.5). To my chagrin, two shorts which I cut yesterday, Cgf and Sgp, have weakened again today so I was clearly too knee jerk in my response and perhaps influenced by my bullishness.

4.15 The closing figure was a drop of 12 points. No new trades today, I just closed out odds and ends. So, sold out a couple more Cey at 361 (v 336) and bought a few Aio at 171 (v 172.5). I'm still expecting a squeeze up for Christmas.

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