Monday, December 7, 2009

Uncommitted. Mon Dec 7

Although US markets managed a small gain it was only after a sell off from early strength. The upshot is that although we rallied early due to our underperformance on Friday, the gains have now ebbed away as caution reasserts itself. At 11.16 am the top 200 index is down 1 point. I have very few positions as I'm still working on some ideas to tighten up my technique.
In fact, I closed out my short in Csr on the open at 171.5 (v 175) because it was too punty a trade for me.
12.25 The weakness continues with the market down 27 points.
I stopped out of Ozl earlier at 121.5 (v 126.5) and put on a new short in Djs.
In Djs, I've had a bearish view since it made a minor new high after a neat 5 wave rally. I've chopped in and out since then but the stock has now made 2 lower highs with the potential of a third and Friday's trade was weak. I took a view that 556 support wouldn't hold and pre-empted the breakdown by shorting at 561.5. The stock has just ticked through to 554 so looking good for the moment and that third lower high is confirmed.

1.09 Also short Tse at 399. This is too close to a potential turning point to be a clean trend but the retracement was weak and it failed to break the last of the lower highs in November. 2.16 The market is down 49 points and choppy at the moment. Like many of the stocks it's threatening to reverse and move into a downtrend but there's no certainty yet. On the day it seems unlikely that we'll slip further because US futures are steady and markets in our time zone are mixed.

4.10 A leisurely recovery has left us down 26 points. Djs closed at 552 and Tse at 400 while Awc still looks ready to drop again although it held quite well to close at 158.

My take on Awc is that we're having a little retracement of the recent drop and I sold a few more at 157.5 as the stock slipped below the lows of the retracement high (?).

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