Thursday, December 17, 2009

Spi expiry. Thu Dec 17

There was a flat lead overnight but it has been a volatile morning session following the Spi December contract expiry leading to an opening rise of 20 points, a quick 30 point reversal and then a 40 point recovery to leave us up 22 points at 11.45 am.

I'm out of the balance of Cey at 370 (v 336) using the 60 minute chart as a guide because the daily was quite extended.
Gold bounced overnight and Lgl, after a slow start, is up 8 at 331 and looking set for a run.
Aristocrat is a concern, it could be a bearish reversal set up so that I've been long a retracement. I'm ready to cut if necessary although there's not the same bearish momentum as there was and there's been a decent overlap of the late November low.
I've gone long Djs on a bullish reversal after a 5 wave correction following the early November rally. I've bought most of my position at a tad under 540.Otherwise, I've reduced position size here and there, selling some Mgr at 153 (v 149), Ost at 323 (v 303) and buying Aio at 169.5 (v 172.5).

12.05 Decided to err on the side of caution and exit All at 386 (v 385.5). I'm not necessarily expecting a new low and on the upside I could easily get another entry at a better price.

2.23 The intraday volatility has continued and we're up 24 points, having been up 41. I completed the Djs buying at 540 average and have sold a few Aoe at 400 (v 395.5), Gff at 158 (v 155.25) and a couple more Ost at 320.

A second new long position today is Transurban but I've only bought half at 397. It's a double bottom and a move out of a tight 5 or 6 bar range but I'm wary of a move to 405-410 and then failure so I'll keep a close watch on this.
3.17 I've shorted All at 390. As mentioned earlier, there's a bearish resumption after a little 3 wave rally and although the momentum has eased and I'm not necessarily looking for a new low, I think there's enough room for a small trade.

3.45 I've sold the rest of the Arrow Energy at 398 (v 395.5). This one never really took off. I've got a general rule with countertrend or trading range type reversals that if it's looking mediocre after a couple of days then I'll just get out. Here's the chart. A modest little rally and a slightly weak day today.

I've also sold more Mgr at 154.5 (v 149). I've only got a third of the position left and I'll look to sell that tomorrow. Yesterday was a small reversal day and we've got new highs today but it has done well enough to leave a few for the morning.

The market has reversed again and is down 7 points.

4.17 It was a mad day and another swing took us to an 8 point gain. Here's an intraday Xjo chart.


I'm cautious overall now as the daily Xjo reversal looks shaky now. I've been reducing position size mainly and sold a few more Gff at 154.5 and bought a few Aio at 168. I missed the chance to complete Tse, I'll wait till tomorrow to decide.

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