Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Impasse. Tue Dec 1

We're on the road to nowhere this morning with a tentative early sell off reversed at 10.42 am so that the market is down only 3 points. US markets were up slightly last night while the Europeans fell around 1%. This tallies with relative exposures to Dubai so that the net result over 3 trading days is a 3% fall in Europe and a 1% fall in the States. Our position is square and if the whole event is a reflection of the strength and exposure of banking systems then that's about right but I think that the Dubai fiasco is a red herring for us and it's all about the sustainability of China's growth.
Meanwhile we're into December and volumes should continue to get lighter despite all the talk that hedge funds have already wound up their trading for the year.
Mirvac Group has slipped back this morning so I've put on two thirds of a long position at 153. Aio has just surged through my stop level after announcing a new rail haulage contract. It never was the finest short in the book and I took off a third of it for a small loss last Friday. Now I'm trying to get out at the best level - my stop was 167.5 but I looked up and it was over 170. It's now pulling back from 173.

11.21 I have to leave the office for a few hours. The index is up 6 and I've bought half of my short balance in Aio at 172.5 (v 161.5). That's a big slippage from my stop level of 167.5 and pretty irritating.

3.36 Since I was out, the market swung down 30 points from the highs and reversed back so we're still up 8 points. I stopped out of the last of the Aio at 170.5 and I'm close to stops in the steel stocks, Bsl and Ost. Regional markets are up and US futures are a fraction higher and it's frustrating watching the shorts rally towards stops. The point of having wider stops is because markets will generally have another go at a high or low before turning but sometimes you get a V shaped reversal and that wouldn't suit me.

Meanwhile the Xjo index is neither here nor there. If I had sold it 3 days back then I would still be short with a stop above Thursday's swing high.
3.47 Telstra had a pullback after my entry and has pushed on to new highs today so, following my new high after a correction rule, I'm going to sell out of this today. I've sold a few at 344 (v 340) so far. Not a very exciting trade but I got on quite late.

4.10 Another quite odd day has finished with the Xjo index gaining nearly 18 points. It was odd because there were a lot of big gainers and moderate losers with relatively few unchanged - at least in the stocks I watch. It now feels quite overbought in the short term.

I completed buying Mgr at 153 on the match. This fell back after a couple of strong days but I'm pretty confident that it will hold the Friday low and I like the fact that the November rally overlapped previous lows and had a long tight correction before a blip down which was quickly rejected.


I sold out more Telstra at 344 but kept a few to finish off in the morning.

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