We did much of our rallying yesterday but there has been some follow through this morning. Once again, I had to cut a short which was ipl. I bought back at 221 after having sold at 206. The rest of my positions are reasonable. I sold out of tah at 706 versus an entry price of 644 as it reached the top of the range at 720 and started to pull back quite sharply, it's now 683. I sold sold sgp at 371 early as it bounced strongly on the open and I thought it worthwhile to take a quick profit on a portion of my position bought yesterday afternoon at 339.
Lgl and ncm have fallen hard this morning. I cut my shorts in these a couple of days ago and they rallied well past my stops but have now gapped down. I thought I might get a better opportunity to short them and although they're definitely looking weak it seems like I'll be getting on at fairly average levels. I've been waiting for a little rally all morning but they've been falling steadily.
I shorted on Monday this week but was a little concerned that there was the possibility of another attempt through 340. My reasoning was that if the stock didn't accelerate down straightaway then there could be, in Eliot wave terms, a 4th wave correction taking place which would imply a 5th wave to a new high. That was why I cut promptly on Tuesday. Yesterday there was a new high which had very little momentum and I suspected the rally could be over. Today's action has confirmed that thought and given that the weekly chart looks like this....
...I'm pretty confident that there will now be some momentum in the fall. Unfortunately, I didn't get the approval to go short until the stock had reached 319. I've been hoping for an intraday rally to allow me to put on a short at better levels but lgl is now 314. Ncm is similar, although the daily chart didn't run as hard from Tuesday through Thursday. Anyway, at some point today I plan to short them both and I'm not too fussed about having missed a little bit of the move as I think it's a better quality short than earlier in the week.I forgot to write about OZ mining or ozl yesterday. I bought some on a bit of a punt following recent clarification about corporate activity and a potential higher low.
It looks like this copper and zinc miner is going to be able to sell its troubled zinc assets, clear its debts and have $600m in the bank while being able to keep its prime Prominent Hill copper mine because of a happy accident where the Australian gov't blocked the initial takeover bid on the grounds of security as Prominent Hill is actually on a huge military facility. The Chinese suitors decided to adjust their bid to a partial one and it's looking like a better deal for OZ than the original proposal; especially given recent optimism about copper. The weekly chart is showing signs of completion and I'm hoping that Wednesday's low, which was higher than the previous low in late February, will prove to be a significant turning point.2.10 I'm a bit over trading this week. It's a classic sort of Friday with quite a few stocks moving countertrend so that although I'm still reasonably comfortable with fmg, gmg and lnc they're all weak today while similar stocks are still firm.
I sold some lgl at 314 and ncm at 3112 about an hour back and they're both a bit weaker now. I'm still hoping for a rally as I'd like to sell more.
2.25 Sold the balance of my lgl and ncm at 310 and 3071 respectively as they keep plunging.
2.45 Decided to cut fmg. Out at 244 vs entry of 238 and some at 271. Not convinced about cutting this as it's just got hit on news of the regulator taking the founding director to court. It's a negative but could take many months to resolve. However, the pullback has been far worse than I expected so I've decided to get out.
I thought yesterday's low just above 250 would be the extent of the fall. The picture is much less clear to me now.
4.06 The market has firmed up into the end of day. Mine are very mixed but sgp has run again and I'm hoping to sell another quarter of my position on the match, should be about 380ish. Also, cnm has run to 22 and has now confirmed a weekly break. Got to dash.
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