Is this it? Fri Apr 24

I mean, is this the end of the rally? Actually, I think there might be another day or so in the US where the market tries to reach a new high. In the short term though, it's working out for me with gold up overnight and European banks weak so that my positions in lgl and ncm are going well with short cba (down nearly 2%) also paying off.

Just off topic, I'd like to say thank you to the people who follow the blog. I know one of them, Danny, who's asked me to explain some of my shorthand a bit more; so I'm trying to explain things a bit more fully. I'm happy to think someone might be getting something out of this other than me. I'm also trying to write about most of my trades including the silly ones. Some are not worth it - for example, quick day trades, but I'll write about the ones with a strategy.

I intend to write a bit more broadly about trading issues because as you can see from the blog a lot of what I do is repetitive, where I'm looking for much the same sort of patterns, and by far the biggest challenge is to manage myself psychologically. The patterns which are hardest to respond to are the behavioural ones which I'm trying to change or accept and work with.

I've added one more trade this morning which is a short in AMP, an Australian wealth manager and life insurer. Conceptually, it's another trade based on my opinion that the market is topping out. Amp has rallied 50% in a month, perhaps because as a wealth manager it holds large stock portfolios so that along with its core business, it's doubly exposed to the market. Here's the daily.I've bought May 550 puts at 39, which means I'm short the stock at 550 less 39, or 511. The stock is trading at 524 so I'm short at worse than the market; however I only risk the 39c cost of the put which is why I have to pay a premium.

I'm trying to put trades on before I get complete confirmation of a trend change and in the short term I'm a bit concerned that I may have jumped in too early here. I'm wondering whether amp might push up towards 540 before it starts to turn down and whether I should hedge the position until then. Here's the 30 minute chart.

2.52 The index has had a sell off this afternoon and is just off its lows, now down 45 points. My positions have kept moving in my favour and I've taken some profits in lgl, ncm and cba. Amp has also had a leg down and is now down 9 at 516.

3.09 I've put on another short position, this time in wpl. It broke support at 3800 and has rallied slowly over 3 days without much oomph. Here's the daily.

I've bought the May 3700 puts at 128.
Bhp has a really similar chart and I thought about putting on much the same trade there but since bhp is already trading at a 2% discount to the US closing price I've held off from that one.
The other banks are starting to follow cba's lead and I'm tempted to short mqg but I don't have such a firm view and option prices are high there so I'll wait for a better opportunity.

4.05 I've got to dash out of the office. The market is closing near its lows although amp, cba and wpl are bouncing a bit. More on Monday.