Not dead yet. Thu Apr 23

Expiry day for stock options and it's a mixed bag for me. Csl, which was the smallest investment, will expire worthless as will wpl which I wrote off over the last few days. My mqg Apr 30 puts are also worthless but fortunately I bought stock against them, effectively going long and look to have come out slightly ahead on the deal. Wes is up strongly today so that position is going well, as the options are essentially stock at this point because they're well in the money and I'll exercise them. I'm selling stock gradually against this effective stock position rather than losing small amounts selling the options because wes is not a terribly liquid option stock.

The US market fell about 1% last night but we've rallied to be up 35 points: perhaps the overnight fall was not as bad as we feared or maybe we were indeed oversold. Anyway, my positions are a little ahead although tol has surprised me and headed back down - below the previous low of 600. I haven't cut yet as it feels like a bit of an engineered trade to force longs out of the stock. Nevertheless, I probably will sell out; I just think that a lot of people will have stopped out now and perhaps there's a chance I can get a better price as overall the market is strong.

I've gone long ncm as it's made a marginal new low 4 days back and is now shaping up slightly bullishly. I cut the short I had here a couple of days ago because I was wondering whether the sell off was complete. The fall from mid March had traced out a 5 wave pattern and I think that could be the second leg of the sell off complete allowing a rally to unfold. Especially if the overall market falls and gold resumes its safe haven status. Here's the daily.

Here's the 30 minute chart. The stock has consolidated today after gapping up and looks ready to run again. I've bought May 2912 calls as there's a fair bit of guesswork going on here.

12.38 Also stopped out of my short in bsl at 261 (vs 267) earlier. Prematurely, as it's now back to 256.

12.53 Stopped out of tol at 597 (vs 627). Bought some wpl at 3732 as they're tracing out a similar pattern to ncm. This is a short term trade as wpl looks weak on larger scales. Here's the 30 minute.I've been in and out of rio today for a small profit as there are a few day trading opportunities on this retracement day. I've closed out the mqg stock at 3146 average vs a buy price of 3056 for a small profit.
1.09 Out of tls at 327 (v 325) as there's no momentum and I've got enough on my plate for now.
2.38 Out of wpl at 3757 (v 3732) for a quick trade.
3.27 Bought lgl at 290 as it's much the same scenario as my other gold stock, ncm.

Also, went short Commonwealth bank, cba, by buying May 3600 puts at 120. The stock has been making marginal new highs as momentum fades but it looks like it may have stalled here. I'm pre-empting a signal of course. Here's the daily.

I'm keen to get out of most positions I've got and leave myself long the two gold stocks and short cba. I'll sell out the balance of wes today and the only other position is a small long in lnc which is quite strong right now. The reason for this is that after the fall earlier in the week I'm looking for the index to make a lower high. There could be another day or two of rally but not easily tradeable as I expect to see a day which opens strong and fades.

3.46 Actually sold out of lnc at 228 v 210 as I just want a clean book and I'm trying to be a bit more instinctive - rather than impulsive.

3.57 Out of wes, average sale price was 2185 (v 2119 via options).

4.10 The market surged in the last hour or so and my short term timing was off in cba. It pushed up about 40 c after I bought puts. I bought a few more at 105. Just a few positions now; long lgl and ncm, short cba. The market up 2% for the day.