Thursday, April 2, 2009

Persistent strength. Thu Apr 2

World markets continue to show resilience in typical leading indicator fashion as recession deepens everywhere. We're up 2.1% at 11.25 am and I've had to cut one of my shorts in bxb as the rally has burst through my stop.

I was using the high of the last big down bar, the 3rd one back, which was 515. I've paid 519 vs an average entry price of 489. I was thinking of using 531 as a stop as that was the limit of the small retracement rally about 5 bars back but given the strength of the market I decided to be relatively cautious.
I thought about cutting my short position in ipl as that's also making a 3 day high. But a look at the 60 minute chart encourages me to think that a rally from here could fail.

I'm assuming that the rally now is corrective of the fall from 226 which started on Mar 30 and completed at 203 the next morning.

On the positive side, all of my long positions are up as well with gmg the pick of them, up 5 to 43, which takes it through daily and weekly resistance.

After running through the top 50 the best potential trade is Stockland Group, sgp, which is another stock in the property sector. It's quite a bullish chart, I've shown the daily here, with last week's high at 334 and the previous week's at 338.

There were all sorts of continuation patterns suggesting some short term strength. I decided to take one of them in cba as although there's no good entry pivot on the weekly chart, it's in a strong uptrend and the daily is showing strength after a flat, bullish consolidation. Fxj is trading up 2 at 107 but has been as high as 110 which confirms the weekly signal.

12.09 I sold out a portion of tah at 691 (entry 644) as it gets near my initial target of 700. I also sold out some of the cba from this morning at 3664. I've got quite a few positions on and I'm going to be out of the office for an hour or two.

3.02 Sold out of a few more tah at 702 and the rest of my cba at an average of 3570 as I had too much exposure and I wanted to buy some sgp which I did at 339 as it broke through resistance, going as far as 348.

4.07 The market is about to match out and it's been a very strong day up over 3% at the peak. I've been a net buyer today and am just lightening the load on the match by selling a little of the extra fmg and lnc that I bought yesterday for 261 and 212 respectively. Ok, the market has closed now up 101 points. My only short is in ipl, which is near to my stop and the best performers have been the property trusts, gmg and gpt and also tah. Tah has hit my first target of 700 and I sold out half my investment at an average a touch below that. I'll keep a fairly tight stop on the rest. In a moving market there are usually lots of opportunities to recycle your money and if you're lucky enough to get the fast move you can quickly move on to the next thing.

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