Monday, April 6, 2009

Housekeeping. Mon Apr 6

The US market looked past a terrible, but expected, jobs report to potential recovery later in the year and managed to eke out a small gain on Friday. The Australian market is in a default rally mode still and perhaps aided by our muted performance on Friday we've rallied 24 points at 11.25am and the index is just below its highs.
I've taken the opportunity to do some housekeeping. For example, sgp continued its strong rally from Friday on the open and once it seemed like the momentum was stalling I sold the last half of my position for 389 vs an entry of 339. I also sold out of gmg at 39. It had rallied quickly from 31 to 46 but was pulling back. I could have spotted this on Friday really but after an initial rally lacked follow through I sold out, I can probably wait for another buy opportunity.

The 60 minute chart of gmg is above and it shows a neat 5 wave rally that peaked and almost immediately reversed on Friday morning. I didn't spot this at the time but I've done something similar in sgp this morning and got out at a good level as it's now trading at 371. I've also sold out of gpt, admittedly on less evidence, as it pushed on to a small new high. Out at 52.5 vs in at 44.

Fxj weakened disconcertingly on Friday afternoon so I sold half of my position out on an opening rally at 111 vs a buy of 103.5. I can still see the possibility of acceleration so I'm retaining some interest here. In this general spirit of caution I sold out some of my ozl position as I'd jumped on a moving stock that was now stalling. I also bought back half of my short positions in the 2 gold stocks lgl and ncm as they gapped down on the open but after the hefty falls last Friday there was little follow through selling. So, bought half the lgl at 298 vs 312 entry and half the ncm at 3003 vs 3091 sale price.

My position of being long wpl is the main concern this morning. I've been expecting a sharp rally back to 4200 but the stock failed to respond to a strong oil price on Friday and hasn't played catch up today either. At present I'm expecting the stock to hold these levels but a fall below 3900 could stop me out.

The daily chart shows the spike up from congestion at 3800 and subsequently support at this level. The fact that the stock price spiked would usually imply that there'll be another test of that level. I might be wiser to grit my teeth and use 3800 for a stop.

I've bought sun at 644 as it's in an uptrend and has breached last week's high with last week having been an inside bar. Slightly pre-emptive as a confirmed break would be at 664 but the 60 minute chart is quite bullish so I think I've got some supportive momentum. I've also put on a slightly pre-emptive trade in fmg. Here's the weekly.I'm theorising that the rally peaking in early February was a completed correction and that last week's high is a pivot in the next leg down. I don't find this entirely convincing but I'm looking for some shorts and the stock is certainly under short term pressure. Here's the daily. A break below 237 would be a good start and give a short term target of 219. I'm short at 243 with the stock at 242.

12.30 Cut the rest of my ozl position at 60 as I'd prefer to wait for a stronger entry position. Original buying price was 58.5.

3.10 Bought some ipl at 231 a little while back. Here's the weekly. It broke through last week's high of 226 a bit earlier while the previous week peaked at 228. I was short this, unsuccessfully, last week and although I'm unsure whether it's made an ultimate low I think the fact that last week made a higher low implies another test of the recent high of 250. I'm a bit concerned I've jumped on when it's a bit extended on the daily chart so I'll watch closely. The other thing I did was to close out my short in fmg at 242.5 for a slight profit. The short term momentum seemed to be over so I think I can find a better level to short this. It's now 246.

3.38 Updating the blog confirmed my buyer's regret about ipl so I gritted my teeth and sold back out at 227 vs purchase price of 231. Bought back the last half of ncm as it got crunched and is now bouncing sharply. A bit of a judgement call this as the daily and weekly charts are poor and I will probably be looking to re-enter on the short side after any consolidation. So, short at 3091 and bought back last half at 2933.

4.10 Bought some tls at 321 on the match out pre-empting a higher low. I bought on a straight reversal a couple of weeks ago and sold out on a target. The stock subsequently fell back towards 300 and is now on the rise again. This run could last a bit longer. Here's the weekly...


...and the daily.I waited for a trade above Friday's high and I'm hoping that the momentum persists.

A pretty good day overall. Wpl almost got back to square although I sold a sixth of my position on the close at 3975. Lgl closed down near its lows at 291 and I regret getting out of my short position in ncm. Once I realised I was too hasty it was too late to get permission to go short again.

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