False start. Thu July 2

It looks like today is the real start of the trading year after yesterday's action seemed to be about unwinding an artificial final day of the financial year. The lead into today's trade was solid but after two confusing days the market has been very cautious this morning. It's almost noon and there's now some tentative signs of strength with the Xjo up 29 points. It's still below early highs but I keep seeing bullish set ups so I can imagine us gaining momentum as the day goes on.

I've nibbled at new long positions in Qbe and Wdc. Qbe is pushing the top of a trading range as it recovers from May's drop. I'm long at 1992 with the stock having now made a new high of 1998 although it has slipped a couple of cents since then.

Westfield hasn't quite made a buy signal but I noticed some steady buying so I bought early at 1114 and 1117. As I write this, it has just traded at 1120 so I've got my first indicator with confirmation of a break out quite a distance away at 1169. The reason I like this chart is that the retracement through most of June looked like a 4th wave down after a typical 3rd wave surge and it held above the 1st wave peak in mid May. The rally over the last week or so implies quite a bit of strength which could see the stock push easily past the June peak of 1235.

2.18 So far it has been a disappointing day for me as the market is almost back to square on the day and most of my positions have drifted down. I'm out of Ipl at 228 (v 242) as it kept making marginal new lows and I've no justification for staying long. Brambles has also failed to hold near term support. I had put on a small long position at 592. Fortunately I sold out half at 596 but I've just sold out the rest at 578. I still have a hedged stock plus July 625 put position.

The Brambles chart sums up the state of the market over the last week or so with jumpy reversals and false signals. Bhp is another one.

I went long on the 3rd bar back, held most of the position overnight and once more I'm undecided. I can get out for square and maybe I will, but the 60 minute chart looks quite encouraging so perhaps I'll just reduce the position yet again and maintain a small interest. The Rio chart is similar but stronger, although the open was the high.

3.49 The market has firmed up in the last hour and is now 17 points higher.

4.00 Sold some Ncm at 3123 (v 3065).

4.12 The market has closed with a gain of 3 points, falling 11 points in the match as the uncertainty that has characterised today's trading continued to the end. I sold out about a third of the Wdc position at 1124.5 ( v 1115.5) and a portion of Qbe at 2004 (v 1992).