Friday, July 10, 2009

Is it just me? Fri July 10

Is it just me, or is this an incredibly boring week? I think the answer is yes; I've had a quick look at the Xjo chart for the week and although Monday was a solid trending down day, Tuesday to Friday have been in a narrow range. There was an intraday rally on Wednesday but the action has been sloppy and illiquid.
I'm glad I'm off on holiday because our market is waiting for our August reporting season and school holidays are upon us so the malaise may continue for a while yet.
The US was flat, again, overnight and while the little rally I was looking for yesterday afternoon came along this morning, the gain is now only 5 points from a high of up 28.
There was quite a good article about the head and shoulders pattern in the S&P 500 index on the fnarena site yesterday. It's locked for subscribers but worth a look, perhaps on a trial subscription. The gist of it is that although the daily chart looks bearish, if you pan out to the weekly then you can see that a fall over the next few weeks would set the market up for a good rally in the latter part of the year. This is because the bigger picture shows a reverse head and shoulders pattern. In my terms (actually Elliott wave terms), when the rally off the March lows overlapped previous lows it indicated that the impulsive down wave was over. It would be quite normal for markets to retrace some of the recent gains and then rally hard again.
4.08 Off now for a week or so. The market has strengthened again, all very thin, but up 26 points or so.

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