Tuesday, July 7, 2009

No conviction. Tue July 7

The US indices were pretty flat last night but the theme was for weakness in oil, gold and base metals and strength elsewhere. Hence, although we dropped yesterday on the back of expected overnight falls which didn't eventuate, we're still down by 16 points. The market is illiquid and indecisive. I cut my short in Ccl at 857 (v 855) although overall I was breakeven on the trade because of a small purchase at 850. In essence, I figured that I shouldn't be in this trade as the trading range is too tight. I also sold out of Wow for square at 2628 as there seems to be little buying interest in the stock - not much selling interest either.

I've bought some Tcl at 406 and 401 (av 403.5) as it seems to be making a higher low. It's also in a range but a much broader one as a percentage of the stock price. I've been slightly disappointed with the lack of buying here today, maybe just a touch of impatience, so I may cut this later in the day.

12.21 Short Gindalbie, an iron ore producer, at 72. The chart made a lower high about a month ago and is now starting to slip through support. 12.36 Also shorted a small amount of Mount Gibson, another emerging iron ore producer as it made a sell signal at 88 a couple of days ago and subsequently has attempted to hold, but is now slipping. Short at 85.5.

2.22 Now short Oil Search as well at 529 as it opened stronger today but then traded through yesterday's low of 528. I've also gone long Telstra at 334. It's not completely bullish but seems to be working it's way towards a range break after a small 3 wave retracement.
2.57 This is a bit perfunctory today because I've got some sort of virus and I'm struggling with low energy and a high temperature. I hope it goes away by Sunday when I'm off on holiday.

Bought back Ost at 236 (v 247) as it's finding support.

3.58 Tcl wasn't showing any strength so I cut for 401 (v 403.5) and replaced with Qbe which pushed through 1954 to make a buy signal. I'm long at 1963 where it's trading now.

4.15 The market closed towards the bottom of the day's range but it's definitely lacking conviction. Long 2 defensives, Qbe and Tls and short resources, Gbg, Mgx and Osh.

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