Friday, July 24, 2009

Onwards and upwards. Fri July 24

The US market pushed conclusively through the June highs with a nice gain of 2% plus on the major indices. The UK and German markets did the same and we've followed suit this morning as the synchronised recovery continues. Late trading in the US is a bit weaker following some disappointing revenue figures from American Express among others, but it doesn't seem to be putting much of a dampener on things.

I sold out of all my longs early. Aoe because it was very strong yesterday and showed no strength early. Out for 395 (v 374) and it's now 389. Got out of Mgx at 116.5 as it showed a little momentum on a gap opening but no follow through and it has also slipped a tad to 111 now (11.56am). The other position was a small one in Aqa and I was happy to take the gap move as it opened up 20 cents or so. Sold at 612 (v 586) although it did spike to 630 but on very low volume.

I mentioned Ipl yesterday, I was hoping for a strong close so I could go long overnight. It didn't eventuate, instead it gapped open following the lead of the two large US fertiliser stocks Mosaic and Potash which surged 6 and 7% last night on strong reports. Ipl will often pull back after a gap opening and after trading at 255 it ground back to 252. Unfortunately, it then reversed rapidly before I could buy and I finally grit my teeth and paid 260. It's now 263 and churning around in a tight range. The fact that it hasn't retraced significantly after an 8% gap makes me think it could go again this afternoon. Here's the daily chart.
I've also bought some Lynas Corporation at 47. It's breaking out of a little range but I was hoping for more of a surge.
12.18 There's one that got away this morning. At least, I think so. Gindalbie, another smaller iron ore producer/explorer, has been setting up nicely and I've been looking for a surge through 80. It got to 79.5 this morning and has been suspended from trading pending an announcement. In the current climate it's probably good news so I may have very little chance to buy when it resumes trading. Here's the chart. Quite a few of the real estate trusts are looking promising. I'm hesitant about trading in them because they don't generally move too far, but Mirvac Group is one that I'm watching anyway.

Actually, I've just gone long some Goodman Fielder at 138, a baker, so a little bit similar to real estate trusts in that the volatility is generally fairly low. Here's the daily. 2.20 I was out of the office and missed Gbg returning from suspension. It's jumped up as high as 86. I've bought a few at 85 but I'm hoping for a small pullback to buy a few more at lower prices.

3.11 The market has been grinding down after a strong gap opening and most of my positions are going nowhere or edging against me. I've sold out of Gff for 137 (v 138) as momentum died and on reflection I feel that it has less upside than my other positions. Ipl is still near the top of the range so I'm hoping that if the futures stop falling the stock can kick again in this last hour.

4.02 The spi contract is just starting to rally after falling all day. Ipl, at least, has pushed up slightly. I sold a handful at 266 (v 260) and have a few more on the offer at 268 for the 4.10pm match.

I almost forgot, also bought some Telstra at lunchtime at 346. They've struggled for most of the afternoon but look as though they could close near the highs. Here's the daily.

I'm showing a few more bars on the chart so you can see that it's quite a significant level having previously peaked around 345 three times since April.

4.11 Telstra closed at 347 which is very promising because the previous peaks tended to be intraday highs. The highest actual close was a recent one at 343. The Xjo closed up 26 points and I'm long Gbg, Ipl, Lyc and Tls.

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