Monday, July 27, 2009

A plethora?

In the words of El Guapo from the film 'The Three Amigos', "would you say I have a plethora?". The market is continuing to grind up and there are buying opportunities aplenty. We're up 51 points approach midday and I've added to my longs with new positions in Asciano, Axa and Toll holdings.

First to the existing positions: Gbg is up 4 at 87.5 and I've sold out a bit over a third of my position there (v 85); Ipl is up 11 at 278 and with US fertiliser stocks firm but subdued overnight I sold some early at lower levels - about two thirds of my position at 273.5 (v 260); Lynas is steady and I've done nothing; and in Telstra I've sold half my position at 352.5 (v 346).

Asciano is once again pushing up to the top of the range and is up 5% today on good volume. It's making higher lows and looks awesome on the weekly. I may be unlikely to hold any position for very long but there's always the hope that you're long when an announcement comes through that there's a takeover bid come in.

Here's the daily chart.

Axa is pushing out of an 8 bar congestion and while there are some earlier highs just above 400 I'm hoping that the rule of thumb where the range of the congestion will match the size of the breakout holds true here. That would give me a target of close to 420. Long at 398.

Toll is another simple breakout of a trading range in what looks like the early stages of a bull trend. It has also been upgraded by two brokers today so there is some good buying interest and it's up 3% now at 651. Long at 646.
12.40 I'm long a bit too much and since I don't have much Ipl left I've sold out the last at 276 (v 260). Not a bad result especially after the stock gapped through the breakout and I had to chase my entry. Mind you, nothing much wrong with the chart.

2.57 I haven't done much in the last couple of hours except for cost covering trades. Sold a little Tol at 660 and 671 (v 646) as the stock has taken off. Sold a handful of Aio at 146 (v 144) and sold out half of the Lynas at 46.5 (v 47) as there is still no momentum. In the case of Lyc I'm happy to turn around and buy again at 48 or 49 if it pushes on as that would confirm the strength.

3.35 I've had Suncorp, a regional bank/insurer, on my radar but have been hesitant to buy it as I want to concentrate on lower dollar, higher percentage breakouts. However, it's a pretty nice one so I'm waiting for a little opportunity to buy here on a slight pullback.


4.13 The market softened a little in the last half hour to close up 50 points. I sold out the rest of Lyc at 45.5 (v 47) and took more profit in Aio at 145.5, Axa at 401, Gbg at 89.5, Tls at 357 and Tol at 662. I bought Sun at 718 thinking it wasn't going to pull back only for it to retreat to close at 711. A pretty good day overall, I'm still long Aio, Axa, Gbg, Sun, Tls and Tol although not terribly much of each.

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