Monday, August 3, 2009

Nervous chop. Mon Aug 3

After the best July for years in all sorts of markets it seems that everyone is looking for a pullback but the momentum is strong and there's lots of money on the sidelines.
I want to refocus my book so I'm out of a few Bly at 30.5 (v 27.5), the last of the Mah at 46.5 (v 39.5) although I was far too hasty as they surged up to 52, Map at 243 (v 233.5), Mmx at 188.5 (v 190) and Ost at 301 (v 305).
Aio is still grinding up and is now at 163. I'm expecting to see some acceleration, like an arm wrestle when one side suddenly capitulates. I'm still in a few Bly and will try to be patient as it looks fine.
I've added two new positions. Gindalbie, an iron ore junior, which looks ready to push on after a short consolidation. I chased my entry and paid the short term peak of 91.
The other one is Goodman Group, property and funds management, who seem to be running on the back of a tie up with a Chinese investor. I've been watching it for days and almost bought on Friday. However, it was consolidating for much of the day but is firm again today and could spike. Long at 52.5.
11.57 Following the pattern of the last couple of trading days, I've quickly got cold feet with Gindalbie and sold out at 89 (v 91). The momentum has faded and I'm a bit worried that, while it should push on soon, it may be due a second leg down especially with Mgx and Mmx (also in the sector) failing to run.

12.29 Just added a couple more small long positions in AWB limited and Platinum Australia. Awb, formerly known as the Australian Wheat Board, has had a chequered history in recent years but is trading well below valuations with a catalyst for recent upgrades being the exit of Brazilian and Indian operations. Anyway, the chart is looking fine and it's nice to know there's a rationale for fundamentally oriented investors to enter the stock.
I've only bought part of my position at 135.5 as I want to see the stock show that it's ready to race.
I've also tried again in Pla as the stock has made another higher low and shows signs of breaking out. Bought at 100.5 as it broke the previous 100 high but it has edged back a cent and again I want to see this trade higher into the close before I buy a full position.
2.17 The remarkable strength continues and the Xjo index is up 24 points having been up 34 earlier. Aio, unfortunately, hasn't shared the strength and so I've decided to cut for square at 160. The new positions in Awb, Gmg and Pla are going the right way. I added a few more Awb at 137 and Pla at 102 with the idea of buying more towards the close if they maintain the strength. I sold out a small amount of Gmg at 53.5 (v 52.5) to cover costs as this one is already extended.

3.28 Gmg is still firm, sold a couple more at 55.5.
Just bought some St Barbara Mines for 22. These have been weak for ages but have just made a new high on the daily and weekly charts. The stock has been scraping along the bottom for ages and with the management making positive noises about having turned around the stock there doesn't seem to be much downside.
4.10 Pla has finished up near the highs and through the breakout level of 100 so I bought some more at 103 on the match out. Average buy price for the day is 101.5. Awb also finished strongly but is below the 140 resistance. I might get a chance to add more if it trades through that level tomorrow. The market eased into the close, finishing up 20 points.

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