Monday, August 24, 2009

Snap back. Mon Aug 24

Up 2.5% at 11.37 am as the US indices continued their late week rally on the back of optimistic comments from Bernanke.

My positions are going well.... as you'd hope in a strong market. Awb is up 7, Lyc up 4.5, Omh up 3.5 and Ppx up 1. I'm underweight so I've stepped into 2 new positions.
The first is the re-entry into Elders I was hoping for. I sold out a couple of days ago as it was grinding slowly down but there was a strong possibility that it would just be a minor pullback. It looks like it was and I've bought stock at 41.5. To be comfortable, I'd need to see this push through 42 strongly.
The second new position is in Gunns which surged out of a range last week and is firm again after a 3 day consolidation. Long at 109. 1.04 Out of Omh as it has reported and there's little enthusiasm. The stock is drifting towards the bottom of the range. Sold at 175 (v 190).

2.42 No real change except that the market has kept running most of the day. It reached a high of up 129 points; up 118 now.
I added to my Paperlinx position a few days back at 58.5 only to see the stock consolidate. I think my patience will pay off shortly as it seems like the stock could be ready to kick again after a pause.
3.56 I've bought some Linc Energy at 146. This is a different sort of trade to most of my recent ones. It has made a buy signal but has been under pressure for quite a while. It raised capital recently at 140 so that triggered the pullback from 180 in mid July and a marginal new low. Having tested those levels I think there's a good chance that the bearish pattern is complete. Nevertheless, it's a trade where I'm looking for a trend reversal.
4.12 A strong finish to a very strong day ended with a gain of 135.5 points or 3.2% on the Xjo index. I had slightly overspent my budget so sold a little Gns at 109.5 (v 109), Eld for square and some Lyc at 66 (v 49.5). I'm training myself not to sell out of good positions early and I've managed to avoid that trap in Lyc so far. I was feeling inclined to cut some against my better judgement so I sold out a tenth of my position on the close to get it out of my system. My logic is that if it falls tomorrow I'll blame myself for not selling any and potentially slip into bad habits again whereas if it keeps running I still have 90% of my position. So, not pure logic but the sort of psychological bargain that sometimes does the trick with trading.

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