Friday, August 7, 2009

Pause to reflect. Fri Aug 7

After the exuberance of yesterday there followed the chastening experience of a modest down night in the US so at midday the market here is down just under 1%. My positions have generally chopped back with the market although Iif is up a fraction.

I just sold out of Suncorp at 786 (v 762). They gave a preliminary estimate of what their final result might be like when they report in late August after having been given a "please explain" letter by the stock exchange having run up so sharply. This provoked a bout of selling which just held support at 763 and then a recovery to all square at 800. I had hopes that having squeezed some longs out it might surge again but it's starting to drift down so I've used the move below yesterday's low as a trailing stop. The chart still looks positive and I'll be looking at opportunities to buy.

2.01 I'm watching Macmahon Holdings for the chance to re-enter a bullish stock. It's looking like a textbook resumption of a sharp uptrend but I'm waiting to see where it closes. So far, the move is modest, up 1 to 48.5.

2.53 The one trade I made which was pre-empting the buy signal was in Fortescue. I've paid the price there as it's the worst performer of my group today, down 12 at 443. It's not a position I need to cut but the problem now is that I'm wasting time. Iag is also down, 7 c to 376, but since I'm confident that it's trending I'm not terribly concerned. Otherwise, Bly and Iif have recovered from early weakness to be mildly strong.

I'm also looking at Pacific Brands, an Australian clothing and homewares group. The Aussie consumer is holding up well and unemployment is still surprisingly low. This stock is similar to Mah, where it's a resumption of the uptrend after a pause. Long at 115.5.


4.10 The spi contract has rallied sharply in the last hour, perhaps traders are hedging their bets with the US employment numbers out tonight. Most of my stocks have performed steadily with Fmg the exception. Overall, the Xjo index which was down 50 points in the early afternoon has closed down 27.

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