Monday, August 10, 2009

Spoilt for choice. Mon Aug 10

Once more, there are opportunities aplenty as the market resumes the rally following benign jobs data in the US last Friday. We're up 40 points at midday and after the chop of last week there are quite a few stocks resuming after consolidations and hence providing entry points.

I've got a few (too many) positions now so I'll approach this in alphabetical order.
Bly: opened up firmly so sold a portion at 37.5, then more at 38.5 and 39.5 (v 34). Back at 37.5 now.
Eld: a new position as it resumes after the surge that followed the announcement of the sale of their insurance division for a good price to Qbe along with the placement of equity to Qbe limiting the size of any additional equity issue which they may ultimately need. Long at 38.5, and 39. Fortescue has been strong and pushed through the recent high of 460 to reach 467 although it is now back at 460. I bought more at 458 and sold out half of them at 464.5.
Fmg has quite good relations with China while Rio's have continued to sour so it's possible that there may be a catalyst for another leg up if investors switch. Rio is down 1.4% this morning.

Iag: a relative laggard, down 1 at 381.

IIf: I don't have much of a position here. Sold out half at 36.5 (v 33). Now 37.

Mah: my favourite position at the moment. Bought at 50 and 51.5 for an average of 50.75 as it resumes. If it doesn't stall below the old high then it could run hard. I've bought a few more than I would normally as I hope to sell the extras out later in the day.

Mof: Macquarie Office, operator of a property trust. I've been waiting for a move past resistance at 24 and bought at 24.5. Has been up to 25 but unfortunately there's little momentum so I may reconsider if the close is lacklustre.
Pbg: long from Friday. Sold out 2/3 at 116.5 (v 115.5) as it's firm but uninspired and I'd rather focus elsewhere.
Srl: Straits resource, a coal miner though not a pure play, is running. Missed a chance to get on Cey early and opted for this which was (and is) lagging a bit, though still firm. Long at 232.5 av.

Tol: similarities to Fmg where the stock has pushed above the recent range but it's still not certain whether there's to be a real push or a minor range break. Long at 705.5 av but it's a higher dollar stock than I really want to deal in and my portfolio size is over my limits now so this may be one of the ones to go.
An interesting point from Ben Potter in the Sydney Morning Herald business section this morning. The ASX 200 is now trading 15.8 percent above its 200 day moving average for the first time since 1999 indicating a stretched market vulnerable to a pull back.
This is why I'm concerned about letting my book get flabby although I'll stay long while the charts are still very positive.

1.48 The market has slipped to be up 28 points and I'm refocussing my book. Out of Bly now, selling the last of the position at 39 (v 34). I've also sold 2/3 of Iag at 379.5 (v 380) and I'm looking for an uptick to sell the rest. Tol looks like it will fail to hold the break as it fell back into the range to be 696. Again, I'm expecting some recovery to allow me to stop out at a better level.

2.14 By the way, Bly still looks good to me but I've got one of those situations where my assistant is in the same stock so I figure I can stand aside and diversify into something else!

3.18 There was an air pocket and the Xjo gave up most of its gains to be up just 4 points. It's steadying now but I sold out of the extra Fmg at 451 (v 458) and closed out Iif at 37 (v 33).

3.33 My reporting calendar is obviously incomplete and I've been surprised by Fortescue announcing what looks like a better than expected full year result. The stock has continued to weaken but it looks to be on light volume and could easily reverse so I'm just watching the action unfold for now. The overall market is on its lows, up 1 point.

3.36 Out of the last of the Iag at 381 so averaged 380 for the selling to breakeven less costs.

3.53 Damn....Fmg is just tanking in a sell-on-fact type fashion. Been as low as 412 although it's now at 427.

4.10 Slow to bite the bullet in Fortescue and along with a couple of other disappointments it has put paid to what started out as a good day. Stopped out of Fmg at 416 (v 453) which was my worst trade in a while. Also, got out of the last of the Pbg at 116 and 115.5 (v 115.5) and a few Srl at 235 (v 234 av) to cover costs. Reduced Tol by selling a few at 698 (v 705.5) as I'm unsure here.

Still long in Eld, Mah, Mof, Srl and Tol. I think today's pullback was overdone and I don't necessarily think there will be much follow through. However, the market has clearly reached challenging levels and it's best to be pretty nimble here.

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