Thursday, April 22, 2010

Ore inspiring. Thu Apr 22

The market is down 1.3% at 12.30 pm as we unwind yesterday's optimism. The Xjo has made a sell signal which is quite significant.
I'm skewed to the short side although I've missed the best mover One Steel, which is down 22 to 369. I'd been short and squared up and yesterday tried to re-short the stock after a minor rally but wasn't agressive enough. I've managed to find a way to get short Bsl today with a fairly tight stop.
However, the trade I want to focus on is a bullish trade in an iron ore stock, Murchison Metals - which explains the shocking pun in today's title. I hesitated about buying into the first leg of the pullback 3 days ago and I mentioned that I'd like to buy the stock in the high 270s. It briefly touched 270 on stop loss selling and I've gone long at 275 with the stock down 15 on the day. My stop is just below the previous swing low of 264.














On a surface level both the Xjo and Mmx charts have formed a sell signal today but I think there's a key difference in that the Mmx is pulling back to a breakout level following a congestion whereas the index has been losing momentum for a month with only a series of minor support levels the best of which is another 60 points away.

To update a couple of recent featured trades. I scrambled out of half of my Ipl at 333 but they've slipped now to 325. I also tipped out the Awc at an average of around 169. Meanwhile Cey is still a modest short for me and still outperforming but also looking like, having made a minor new high, it is ready to swing down again. Qan is about steady as the dust clears but the threat remains. Not many winners so far this week but I've managed to hold the fort with a breakeven result so far.

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