Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Watching and waiting. Tue Apr 6

The market has had a nice little lift on the back of good US jobs numbers and has shaken off a 25bp rise in the RBA's cash rate to 4.25%. I haven't really done anything today in terms of new positions.
Most things are going quite well except that Lihir has had a 22 cent drop to 382. This is despite a rise in the price of Newcrest of nearly 4% which adds approximately 14c per share to the bid price which equates to over 411 now. So, the stock has gone from a premium to the bid to a discount as brokers have generally suggested that Lihir should accept the bid and some are even nervous that Newcrest might walk away. Given that they only initiated this process recently, the consensus is that Ncm will hang around and might sweeten the bid. There's also a realistic possibility of another bidder emerging for Lgl.
Personally, I think it's an overreaction on the downside while the chart tells me nothing as it's just some gap filling. The Newcrest chart is interesting though. It actually looks very good itself and could drag the Lgl price up even if the discount remains.
















Another salient point is that the share register for both is dominated by many of the same institutions and if they feel that the bid should be accepted they will have a fair bit of sway with the company.

Here's a chart of spot gold which looks like it is early in a third wave with plenty of upside potential.

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