Friday, April 23, 2010

Stress test. Fri Apr 23

The market has rallied from some early weakness so that the Xjo is down 16 points, approaching midday, after a 33 point fall early. Resource stocks have been volatile and I've watched Mmx drop to 265 early although it's firming mildly now. I hadn't bought my full allocation yesterday so finished off with another tranche at 268. It's flirting with my stop levels so it was quite hard to buy more. A similar thing has happened in Minara, where I've bought a few more at 88.5 having paid 93.5 for some a couple of days ago.
Still, I'm encouraged by Cey. I've weathered the squeeze up to a minor new high and even shorted a handful more yesterday at 471 which I bought back this morning at 455. They're down to 448, a tick above where I shorted the first lot.
If I look at my group of positions right now, I'm not completely comfortable because I'm long high beta stocks like Fmg, Mmx and Mre. If the market is going to trend lower over the next few weeks - having made a sell signal yesterday - then these should underperform. I know I'm long them with reasonable stops but I do want to make a profit rather than a series of manageable losses!
One stock that stands a chance of outperforming is Fairfax. I've actually been short this for a few weeks but the losses have been grudging and I've cut and reversed with a long at 175. The recent swing low is 172 and I'll place my stop just below.

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