Thursday, April 8, 2010

Slow train crash. Thu Apr 8

It's quarter to 12 and I've had the Manchester United v Bayern Munich game on in the background. It took till about the 75th minute but you could just "smell" that Bayern were going to get the equaliser that would put them through on the away goals rule. Anyway, the market here seems to be following a similar pattern. We're down a very modest 22 points but the overnight lead was very weak. Greg Peel has pointed out in his morning round up on FnArena that the US market only rallied very late and the volume on this decent sized down day was 50% higher than recent volume on the grinding up days.
I've taken the opportunity to sell out of my long positions in Fortescue and Linc Energy on trailing stops. I'd like to buy back into both positions but I think I'll get a better chance.
Here's Lnc.
I bought at 167 and 162 on the pullback from the 184 high. If the subsequent rebound turns out to be part one of the next move up then I might be a chance of getting back in somewhere in the low to mid 160s. My exit was at 174.

As the Greek situation continues to sour at the expense of the Euro, attention remains focussed on gold which I highlighted on Tuesday. The gold price was strong again last night and closed above the previous high of USD 1145 which is quite encouraging. Ncm is up 22 and Lgl is still recovering, back up to 397 which is a discount of 20 c to the equivalent bid price.

12.50 pm I've added a link to Brett Steenbarger's excellent blog TraderFeed. It's full of interesting and useful information with a psychological perspective. I've been reading a few bloggers over the last hour or so because the market has traded in a very tight range. Tim Price at thepriceofeverything is particularly gloomy right now and gives a European based reality check which is in useful contrast to the China led bullishness driving the Australian market. He makes a very good case for gold in the medium term. 

4.23 Not so much a slow train crash as a freeze frame. The market barely moved all day and closed down 23 points. Still, Linc fell further to close on its lows at 166.5 so I might get a chance to buy back in tomorrow.

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