Monday, December 6, 2010

Becalmed. Mon Dec 6

The ASX has been upgrading systems lately and, as with most bureaucratic organisations, it has been a debacle. They've tried again today and half the market has access while the other doesn't. Rather than close the market, the ones without direct access can still trade via a backup system. All very well, but it doesn't really suit me as I prefer to massage my positions rather than plonk them on or off via a broker order.
Therefore I'm strangely becalmed, watching my positions and feeling not very much like Warren Buffett. His idea is that you should be happy to hold your investments even if the market closes for 10 years. 10 minutes and I'm getting anxious...
The market has drifted from a rise of 4 or 5 to a loss of 2 or 3 but there's some buying in my stocks and they're generally higher with Lynas flat.

11.43 Still locked out but bought some more Avoca at 329 through my broker. Gold was very strong overnight but the gold stocks aren't going crazy. The rise in the AUD would have cancelled out the rise in our terms but that's applying logic to a connection which is ruled by sentiment (in the short term). I've enclosed a gold chart (in USD terms) and it looks a good chance of pushing through the November highs.













Anyway, here's the Avoca chart. It's not flying away but has built a base just above the second attempt at a breakout. Stop is at around 310.

1.02 I'm doing some housekeeping but no new positions. So, sold a few Aru, Awe, Ost and Pna at levels a little higher than Friday.

2.47 The market is flatlining. It's possible that all eyes are on the cricket where Australia are fighting to save the second test.
I sold out of all the Pna at 76.5 and 77. I'd decided earlier that it was too late an entry (75) and I also remembered that I'd passed this onto my assistant to trade so I'm supposed to leave it alone. It looks quite good now I'm out although that's not the point...sort of.
3.45 This is like a public holiday; really, really quiet.
I'm having another go at shorting Ipl. It's lost momentum so that although it is grinding back up towards the recent high at 400, the pattern looks increasingly like a head and shoulders top. Short a few at 388 with a stop a touch above 400. I'd prefer to sell more stock in the 390s.
4.10 A typically disappointing day for us in our current idiom. After a muted rally on Friday, failing to react to another strong overnight lead, the reason given was concern about possible negative reaction to US employment figures. The numbers weren't great but since they seemed out of step with recent data, the US markets ignored them and finished up. Instead of having a delayed reaction though, we've drifted off 5 or 6 points in desultory fashion.
Compared to our recent form, losing just 5 points - rather than retracing most of Thursday's rally - is probably wildly optimistic.
I'm out of most of the Aru after a couple of nowhere days and after I missed the obvious short term peak in Lynas last Thursday, I'm gritting my teeth as it falls to support at around 148. If that doesn't hold, my scenario for the stock is inaccurate and I'll have to get out. It'll then be a question of stopping out or playing a bounce if the short term looks ok.

 

No comments:

Post a Comment